Another baseball season goes by where fantasy owners ended up pretty happy with Elvis Andrus as their shortstop. Aside from 2018, Andrus has been solid the past three seasons. He’s hitting more home runs, yet the stolen base totals have remained steady, again, minus 2018. He swiped 31 bases last year and it was the first time since 2014 he attempted at least 39 stolen base attempts. Andrus still comes at a relative value in fantasy drafts, despite offering plus production in the game’s weakest category. His 31 stolen bases were the fifth-most in the league last season, and he was one of just six with 30 or more swiped bags. He’s been durable, playing in at least 147 games in all but two seasons (2009 and 2018), and at a position with a lot of top-tier talent, he gets undervalued on a yearly basis.
Andrus is the farthest thing from a Statcast freak. His exit velocity and hard hit rates are below average, and despite being a plus contributor in terms of stolen bases, his sprint speed is actually below league average (46th percentile). His barrel rate isn’t any better, and last year’s 3.5-percent barrel rate was his lowest mark in the past three seasons. Fortunately, he plays in a hitter’s park, and his average exit velocity increased for the second straight season. In fact, last year’s mark of 88.2 miles per hour was the best of his career.
Furthermore, per Fangraphs, his 38.5 percent hard contact rate was a career high, and his soft contact rate of just 14.0 percent was the second-lowest of his career. The harder contact helped offset further loss of home runs because it allowed him to increase his HR/FB percentage. Not only did Andrus make harder contact overall, but he rebounded a bit in 2019.
Year | Exit Velo on LD/FB |
2017 | 91.8 |
2018 | 90.0 |
2019 | 90.7 |
Courtesy of Baseball Savant
He made harder contact, and while he couldn’t replicate his 2017 mark in the above category, he rebounded a bit. It helped his HR/FB rate, too.
Not only is that good for 2020, but something else opens the path for better power production in 2020. While the Texas brass believes that the new park is going to play fair, I think right handers get a sizable boost. The left-center field wall is being moved in 18 feet, and the fence in left field is being shorted by six feet! Andrus had just four home runs at home last season, compared to eight on the road, but when he hit 20 round-trippers back in 2017, seven were hit at home. Furthermore, of his 12 home runs last year, six were pulled. So, we should see some increased power production, especially at home, for Andrus in 2020.
The last thing to note here with Andrus is his diminishing contact rate. From 2009-2016, he had a mark of at least 85-percent. In the past three years, he’s failed to surpass 82-percent. Furthermore, after posting just one season above a 6.0-percent SwStr%, he’s tallied a SwStr% rate of at least 8.5-percent. Fortunately, his strikeout rate hasn’t suffered too drastically, but he’s chasing out of the zone more, making less contact and whiffing more. That isn’t exactly a recipe for success. However, to his credit, his batting average hasn’t wavered too much, and is relatively on par with his xBA.
Andrus’ contributions in the speed department will push him up the player value charts by the end of the year. I believe the adjustments to the park should help his power numbers slightly, or at least provide optimism that his batted ball profile doesn’t replicate that dreadful 2018 season. The fact that he’s the 17th shortstop off the board is asinine. Yes, the shortstop position just might be the strongest fantasy position in the game this season, sans outfield, but speed is king, and Andrus is one of the last guys you can get that provide quality speed numbers and won’t destroy you in other categories.
Andrus will, yet again, provide a quality return on investment in fantasy baseball this season. His speed plays, and there’s reason for optimism for an improved power profile, which certainly helps. By seasons end, he’ll yet again be a top 100 player, but won’t be drafted as such. Draft Andrus and take a nice, leisurely stroll to the bank!
Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
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