Playing through or returning from injury too soon can depress a player’s statistics. On the surface, Dansby Swanson turned in a breakthrough season in 2019 with 77 runs, 17 home runs, 65 RBI, 10 stolen bases and a respectable .251/.325/.422 slash line over 127 games. His walk (9.4-percent) and strikeout (22.8-percent) rates remained stable as did his underlying discipline metrics. Swanson did reduce his O-Swing (outside the strike zone) to 27.9-percent from a career-worst 36.5-percent the season prior as well.

When delving into his breakout, it’s even more stark within his results prior to a right heel injury suffered on July 23rd and his return in late August. Focus on the drop in power along with the dip in his slash lines pre and post injury:

  • Swanson from March 28th to July 23rd: 98 games, 431 plate appearances, 64 runs, 21 doubles, 17 home runs, 57 RBI, seven stolen bases; .265/.330/.468
  • Swanson from August 26th to September 29th: 27 games, 114 plate appearances, 13 runs, five doubles, zero home runs, eight RBI, three stolen bases; .194/.307/.245

Suffice it to say, Swanson’s return in late August skewed his overall numbers from last year but it creates a buying opportunity for the 26-year-old shortstop. Swanson’s isolated power dropped from .203 pre-injury to an anemic .051 during his return and his weighted on-base average (wOBA) also suffered going from .334 before his injury to .253 his last 27 contests. Hope lies in his 98-game sample from the onset of the season carried through a full season.

According to Statcast, Swanson recorded 365 batted ball events with 37 barrels (10.1-percent), an 89.8 MPH average exit velocity and 14.2-degree launch angle. This represents a six-percent increase in barrel-percentage, a three MPH gain in exit velocity while improving his launch angle despite the late season struggles. He also notched career highs in fly ball percentage (28.2-percent) and line drive rate (29.6-percent) with a career low in ground ball percent (37.3). Swanson’s sweet spot percentage rose to 36.7-percent and his hard hit rate surged to 41.6-percent fueling his growth in power prior to his injury. Here’s his spray chart from last year:

Unlike many hitters who sell out discipline to pull the ball to boost power, Swanson remained in line with past results hitting to the middle of the field and to the opposite field during his breakout. He also cut his chase percentage and chase contact rates in the process. In terms of his expected statistics, Swanson finished with a .271 expected batting average, .480 expected slugging and .347 expected wOBA (30 points above his actual). Not only did Swanson display better results as a hitter in 2019, he actually could be better going forward:

One cannot simply extrapolate his first 98 games over a full season, but when Swanson landed on the injured list, he projected towards 27 home runs given health. His late season struggles remain in fantasy owner’s minds when seeing his depressed average draft position along with the depth at shortstop this year. Given what’s known, Swanson made strides in his quality of contact, improved his hard-hit rates driving the ball more along with increasing his launch angle. All of this coincides with him moving to fourth or fifth in Atlanta’s lineup in the 2020 season.

Taking the aggregate numbers of Swanson’s five projection sets available on Fangraphs, he’s projected for 140 games with 71 runs, 17 home runs, 68 RBI, 10 stolen bases and a .254 average. All five systems foresee a boost in his on-base and slugging percentages with Swanson entering his power peak. Taking into account a potential shortened season, here’s his baseline projection in three different scenarios:

  • 120 games - 61 runs, 15 home runs, 58 RBI, nine stolen bases
  • 100 games - 51 runs, 12 home runs, 49 RBI, seven stolen bases
  • 80 games - 41 runs, 10 home runs, 39 RBI, six stolen bases

If Swanson hits fourth or fifth, his RBI total seems too low in any of these projection sets. Plus, there’s potential growth in his batting average given his .265 average pre-injury along with his .271 expected average last year courtesy of Statcast. It remains to be seen if Swanson can display his power gains in a full season and 2020 may not provide this opportunity. But, given his present price point with pocket stolen bases, Dansby Swanson makes for an intriguing upside option as a mixed league middle infielder.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com