Last season’s disappointment rebounds to this year’s bargain. It's very possible for Danny Jansen in 2020. He did not reward owners taking a chance on Jansen as an upside catcher last season. Jansen appeared in 107 games with 41 runs, 13 home runs, 43 RBI but with a .207/.279/.360 slash line. Less than optimal.
Discerning if Jansen can bounce back lies in translating his discipline into better batted ball results. He owned an 8.1-percent walk rate with a 20.6-percent strikeout rate and .153 isolated power. Jansen’s swinging strike percentage of 8.8-percent accompanies an 81.1-percent contact rate and 88.6-percent Z-Contact (in the strike zone) rate. Average major league hitters recorded a 76.2-percent contact rate and 84.9-percent Z-Contact rate. So, even as a catcher, Jansen made contact at a higher rate and in the strike zone more often than all of his peers regardless of position. In fact, his O-Swing (outside the strike zone) percent sits five points below as well.
According to Statcast, Jansen recorded 270 batted ball events with 16 barrels (5.9-percent) with an 88.7 MPH average exit velocity and 16.1-degree launch angle. His hard hit rate of 40-percent provides hope for improved contact going forward representing his batted ball events with an exit velocity of 95 MPH or better. Here’s his spray chart from last year as a point of reference:
One thing which stands out on this chart, is how often Jansen relies on his pull side for power. Nine of his 14 home runs went to left field with only four to center and zero to right field. Jansen struggled in batted balls to the center of the field with a batting average below the Mendoza line (.215) when hitting the ball there. Food for thought but there’s time for Jansen to adjust. His expected statistics point to improvement in the year ahead. Jansen’s expected batting average of .247 and expected slugging of .418 both reside well ahead of his actual results from last year. Plus, Jansen’s expected weighted on-base average (.314) finished 39 points higher than his actual as well. This can be seen in his zone profile:
There’s no guarantee Jansen will migrate toward his expected numbers, but his projections support positive movement to the mean going forward:
- Danny Jansen 2020 Steamer Projection - 75 games, 295 plate appearances, 35 runs, 11 home runs, 36 RBI, two stolen bases; .249/.326/.431
- Danny Jansen 2020 ATC Projection - 101 games, 379 plate appearances, 43 runs, 15 home runs, 45 RBI, stolen base; .244/.323/.436
- Danny Jansen 2020 THE BAT Projection - 81 games, 314 plate appearances, 36 runs, 11 home runs, 35 RBI, stolen base; .234/.314/.410
All three projection sets fall like the three bears. One very low, one very high and will one be just right? Part of his production will depend on playing time. Originally slated to share time with Reese McGuire , an arrest on the first day of camp for McGuire clouds his outlook in the immediate future. A potential suspension would open the door for Jansen to take the job and run with it if he starts strong. This puts the ATC projection into play with enough starts. Time will tell if Jansen can turn the corner as a catcher with upside for fantasy. Take his expected statistics from last year and hope it translates to 15 home runs in 2020 with an average near .250, if this happens, Jansen could be a nice second catcher target late in drafts.
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Statistical Credits:
BaseballSavant.com
Fangraphs.com
Steamerprojections.com
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
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