An aging first baseman coming off his worst season in five years usually does make him a profile worthy player. Daniel Murphy cratered in Colorado appearing in only 132 games with 56 runs, 13 home runs, 78 RBI, a stolen base and a .279/.328/.452 slash line. Targeted as a player with batting average upside with a chance to hit 20 or more home runs with Coors Field as his home for half of his games, Murphy disappointed. He’s one full year removed from microfracture surgery on his knee but suffered an avulsion fracture of his left index finger in spring training which landed him on the injured list after two games and one hit in his first 10 at-bats.
It’s possible Murphy never returned to full health on the season with the injury to his pull hand as a left-handed batter. Murphy recorded a 6.7 walk percentage with a 15.5 strikeout percent and .174 isolated power in 2019. He maintained a strong line drive rate (24.2-percent) with a 36.1 fly ball percentage with his home run per fly percent dropping to 9.8 percent along with his hard-hit percent finishing at 30.4-percent. Less than optimal.
Murphy’s down season continues when shifting to Statcast data. He registered 368 batted ball events last season with only nine barrels (2.4-percent), an 86.3 MPH average exit velocity and a 14.8 degree average launch angle. It’s encouraging to see Murphy still elevating baseballs, but this marks the second straight year with a declining exit velocity. Perusing his expected statistics, Murphy’s .250 expected batting average (xBA) and .371 expected slugging (xSLG) do not jump off the page either. This could signal another year of injury affected performance or the start of a decline for Murphy. All hitters age differently.
Before writing off Murphy, here’s his spray chart from the last three seasons:
Murphy entered last season with a robust .325/.374/.539 slash over his prior 380 games with 60 home runs, 239 RBI and 10 stolen bases. His Steamer projection for 2019 of 81 runs, 22 home runs and 86 RBI did not materialize nor did his projected .305/.360/.506 slash. But keep this tucked away late in drafts.
When one looks at Murphy’s plate discipline, nothing really changed. On Fangraphs, he recorded a 5.9 swinging strike percentage with an 87.7 contact rate and 94.2-percent Z-Contact (contact percentage in the strike zone). On Statcast, Murphy owns a .296 xBA with a .479 xSLG, 89 MPH average exit velocity and a 15.4 degree launch angle his last 2,068 batted ball events. This includes last year’s aberration. Many will kick dust on Murphy this year even though first base depth in drafts falls off a cliff.
Teams looking for later round batting average insulation should not forget about Murphy. If injury hampered his numbers for two straight years, this creates a unique buying opportunity on a player with elite plate discipline at a time when it’s eroding with younger power hitters. Here’s Murphy’s rolling expected weighted on-base average:
Despite an injury affected season, Daniel Murphy still drove in 78 runs in only 438 at-bats. Playing in Coors could benefit him in 2020. But, this will be the last time he’s recommended if his struggles from 2019 carry over. Betting on a rebound from a veteran with something left in the tank. Better days lie ahead. Steamer projects Murphy for 130 games, 501 at-bats, 70 runs, 20 home runs, 77 RBI, two stolen bases and a .288/.341/.485 slash line. This represents a very attainable floor for a talented hitter in an above average hitting environment.
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Statistical Credits:
BaseballSavant.com
Fangraphs.com
Steamerprojections.com
Baseball-Reference.com
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