No reliever may decide the fate of his owners more than Craig Kimbrel in 2020. On the one hand, Kimbrel did not go through spring training before signing with the Cubs. Hampered by the draft pick associated with signing Kimbrel prior to to the major league draft in June. So, his conditioning cannot replicate game situations which potentially contributed to his struggles in 2019. However, one cannot overlook his declining fastball velocities by a mile per hour in the two seasons following its peak in 2017.

With this in mind, along with last season’s results, Kimbrel sits on the precipice of adapting to his new arsenal or rebounding as he’s done in the past. Last year, Kimbrel logged 20.2 innings zero wins, four losses, 13 saves, a 30:12 K:BB, 6.53 ERA, 4.75 xFIP and bloated 1.60 WHIP. Less than inspiring for fantasy. Desperation can be a stinky cologne, which applied to Kimbrel owners. Stuck waiting for his return, they suffered his slugging outings for the 13 saves while hoping the real Kimbrel would emerge.

Kimbrel missed time in August with inflammation in his knee and then landed back on the injured list in September with inflammation in his elbow. Speaking to Kimbrel’s average velocity with his fastball can paint one picture, but check out this tweet from one of the team’s beat writers showing how it fluctuated during Kimbrel’s time with the Cubs:

 

 

Working with reduced velocity can hamper a pitcher used to being able to reach back for a little extra at times. It also allowed hitters more time facing Kimbrel. Noting Kimbrel’s fastball velocity reached its pinnacle in 2017, here’s his strikeouts minus walks percentages the last three seasons: 2017 (44.1), 2018 (26.3) and 2019 (18.8). Kimbrel’s swing percentage in the strike zone rose along with contact rates. His swinging strike percentage dipped to 14.8 percent in 2019 with contact up to 69 percent and zone contact at 84.6 percent.

According to Statcast, Kimbrel allowed 52 batted ball events yielding 11 barrels (21.2 percent), an average exit velocity of 92.3 MPH and 17.9-degree launch angle. For context, Kimbrel allowed 11 barrels all of 2018 on 188 events. Kimbrel suffered a similar average exit velocity in 2017 but he combated it with a 49.5 strikeout percentage along with a career low walk rate of 5.5 percent. With this in mind, here’s Kimbrel’s pitch plot from last year:

Noting Kimbel’s reduced strike percentage, his swing and miss chart reflects it:

When hitters laid off the curve in the dirt, and working with reduced velocity with the fastball, Kimbrel served up nine home runs over 20.2 innings. His expected statistics also display the cracks in the foundation. Kimbrel allowed a .270 expected batting average, .606 expected slugging percentage and .403 expected weighted on-base average. An eye popping expected weighted on-base average on contact of .556 does not make sense for an elite closer. Again, health? Lack of time to prepare? What? Here’s his zone profile from 2019:

For perspective, Kimbrel yielded a 91.4 MPH average exit velocity in 2017 with a .166 expected batting average and .444 expected weighted on-base average on contact. Add this to his reduced ground ball rate last year with more line drives (34.6 percent) and fly balls (32.7 percent) contributed to the increased home runs and barrels. Kimbrel also grooved more pitches in 2019 suggesting less command (no spring perhaps) or not trusting his fastball. Not only did his velocity decrease, he also lost movement with the pitch:

Weighing all of this clouds projecting Kimbrel for 2020. He’s recovered from rough seasons in the past. Over the last three years, he owns a 10 - 6 record with 91 saves in 154 innings with 253 strikeouts versus 60 walks, a matching 2.69 ERA and xFIP along with a 0.94 WHIP. Starting in 2018, Kimbrel’s first pitch strike percentage dropped to 58 percent and it repeated last season. This affects how he attacks hitters as reflected in his usage chart from Brooks Baseball:

Any recovery of his velocity this spring would be a positive sign towards a bounce back. Fantasy owners will need to decide how much risk they will be willing to incur on an investment in Kimbrel. They also need to track any information about the health of his elbow. Last year, along with the lower velocities could be a blip or a harbinger of bigger issues looming. Kimbrel’s projections reflect this:

  • Craig Kimbrel 2020 Steamer Projection - 4 - 3, 35 saves, 65 IP, 90:28 K:BB, 3.58 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
  • Craig Kimbrel 2020 ATC Projection - 3 - 5, 25 saves, 54 IP, 75:24 K:BB, 3.90 ERA, 1.20 WHIP

While both sites agree on a 1.20 WHIP, disparities exist in all the other categories. Craig Kimbrel enters 2020 with a wide band of potential outcomes. For the risk averse, he rates as a pitcher to avoid. However, if he can come close to the Steamer numbers, Kimbrel’s worth his present price point as the 11th closer taken in live NFBC drafts. He would even be a bargain. Only 11 pitchers accrued at least 30 saves in 2019 giving credence to taking a proven closer at a reduced rate. But there’s a boom or bust element to his profile with some indicators suggesting a full return to his old self may not occur.

Weigh all of this and dependent on team construction, treat Craig Kimbrel accordingly. There’s a chance he saves 35 games, 25 games or misses time with any recurrence of his elbow inflammation. Long story short, Kimbrel presents himself as the poster for volatility. Act accordingly.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

BrooksBaseball.net

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen