In a return to Cleveland, Carlos Santana rebounded across the board statistically providing sweet music to his owners last year. Santana appeared in 158 games with 110 runs, 34 home runs, 93 RBI, four stolen bases and a .281/.397/.515 slash line. He also notched matching 15.7 percent walk-and-strikeout rates marking one of two qualified hitters with as many walks as strikeouts (Alex Bregman ). Santana’s isolated power spiked to .234 with a 19.3 home run per fly ball percentage as well. Before getting too excited about the gains in average, note Santana finished with a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .293, 25 points above his career rate.

According to Statcast, Santana recorded 467 batted ball events with 45 barrels (9.6 percent), a 91.8 MPH average exit velocity and 11.8-degree launch angle. His hard-hit percentage rose to 44.9 percent and he owned a 29.1 sweet spot percentage. Knowing Santana owns strong discipline metrics, the “bounciness” of last year’s baseball worked in congress with his surge in hard hit percentage matching his career high in home runs with 34, seen in his spray chart:

Trying to discern how Santana will perform in 2020 begins by looking at his expected statistics. Using the metrics on Statcast, Santana’s expected batting average of .268 and expected slugging of .485 imply regression to the mean could be pending. Santana also notched an expected weighted on-base average of .367 which sits 13 points below his actual. So, the juiced baseball and some luck benefited Santana last season. Here’s his zone profile:

Digging a bit deeper, perhaps Santana’s splits by half tell the whole story:

  • Carlos Santana 1H - 87 games, 313 at-bats, 19 home runs, .297/.418/.540 slash with a .243 isolated power, .311 BABIP
  • Carlos Santana 2H - 71 games, 260 at-bats, 15 home runs, .262/.370/.485 slash with a .223 isolated power, .272 BABIP

Remembering Santana’s career BABIP of .268, his second half appears much more in line with what his 2020 could look like. In fact, it resonates in his projection sets:

  • Carlos Santana 2020 Steamer Projections: 150 games, 654 plate appearances, 92 runs, 30 home runs, 94 RBI, three stolen bases; .260/.376/.483
  • Carlos Santana 2020 ATC Projections: 154 games, 654 plate appearances, 91 runs, 28 home runs, 91 RBI, three stolen bases; .257/.371/.467
  • Carlos Santana 2020 THE BAT Projections: 152 games, 656 plate appearances, 86 runs, 27 home runs, 87 RBI, three stolen bases; .248/.362/.454

On the surface, it appears THE BAT does not forget about Santana’s .229 average in 2018 with the Phllies. However, all three see a home run total in the high 20’s with close to 90 runs and RBI in the offing. Some of this will depend on how well Cleveland’s offense produces, but entering his Age-34 season, Santana should come close to his projected numbers. Just pay for an average somewhere between his ATC and Steamer to avoid disappointment. Fueled by an inflated BABIP, it’s tough to predict a repeat of 2019 across the board for Santana, especially the .281 average. At his present price point, Carlos Santana makes for a solid target as long as one dials back his expectations.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty