The Houston Astros have been the talk of the town in baseball circles, and while early on a lot of the heat was on Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman , it now appears that Carlos Correa has emerged as the face of it all. He’s been rather outspoken this offseason, and it’s safe to say that this team is by far the hardest to project in 2020. I expect regression across the board, but Correa is coming off a season that he was on pace for a career season. In just 75 games last year, he hit 21 home runs with 42 runs scored, 59 RBI and a .279/.358/.568 slash line. It’s the third-straight season that Correa failed to appear in 111 or more games, and that’s a major knock on him, and now when you introduce the elevated risk of bean balls, it’s not quelling anyone’s concerns to say the least. Overall, there were some positives from 2019 that have me thinking of buying back into Correa yet again in 2020.
As mentioned earlier, his 162-game pace from last year had him in line for a career year. His numbers last year extrapolated over 162 games come out to 45 home runs, 90 runs scored and 127 RBI, all of which are easily career-highs. This is great and all, but it does point out one issue with Correa that many fantasy owners grapple with come draft time. More on this later…
Correa’s Statcast metrics in 2019 further illustrate the fact that it would have been a big year for him. His average exit velocity was a bit down, but launch angle and barrel rate were through the roof! Also, his average exit velocity on just fly balls and line drives was up as well, and that is always good!
Year | Avg. Exit Velo FB/LD | Barrel % | Launch Angle |
2015 | 94.3 | 8.9% | 8.3 |
2016 | 95.0 | 7.7% | 6.9 |
94.9 | 9.3% | 9.2 | |
2018 | 93.7 | 7.0% | 11.6 |
2019 | 95.7 | 13.5% | 12.4 |
Courtesy of Baseball Savant
Last year would have been a career year for Correa, and there’s no doubting it. All the marks were there. Metrics were lining up with overall performance and he was using the field comparably to his 2015 and 2016 seasons. However, the constant thorn on the Correa rose reared its ugly head again.
Durability. The best ability is availability, and it’s been a problem for Correa. Over the past three seasons, he’s appeared in just over 60 percent of the team’s games. He’s missed time over the past three years for thumb, back and rib injuries, making it safe to say that he’s not exactly a beacon of health! The shortened season could help, and it actually gives Correa a slight boost, as he’s proven to be statistically dominant, in some categories, even in a short period of time.
The shortstop position is incredibly deep this season, and Correa is currently being drafted outside of the top 12 options at the position. His overall ADP has him just outside of the top 100 overall. Remember when I mentioned the tough decision fantasy owners struggle with when it comes to Correa? Well, here it is:
At a deep position, Correa is a plus asset in two categories, average in another one or two, and worthless in the last one. Shortstop is a position where you can net some speed, even with guys after Correa. He doesn’t give you any of that. He is a solid power (HR & RBI) producer, but durability tends to get in the way and negate him from piling up those numbers.
If you want more speed, grab Tim Anderson at the same price or Amed Rosario a couple rounds later.
If you want Correa but miss on him, and still want some power and RBI/R from the position, grab Corey Seager three to four rounds later, because the two are statistically similar and figure to be in 2020.
If you want similar power numbers at the expense of some points in the batting average department, Paul DeJong is coming off the board about 75-100 picks after Correa.
Using Steamer’s projections, Correa’s power upside at the position is validated, as he’s one of just seven guys projected to hit 30 or more home runs. However, there are 18 shortstops projected with at least 10 stolen bases, which Correa certainly won’t get to this season. There are 17 other shortstop eligible players (16 if you remove Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ) that have the same or higher HR+SB as Correa. If you need speed, maybe you pass on Correa and grab the likes of Scott Kingery , or Elvis Andrus .
I’ve been adamant about backing Correa in recent years, and I like some of the upticks he made in 2019, but shortstop is an incredibly deep position, and one where I like to gain some stolen bases. I can get solely homers, RBI and average from other positions, so when it comes time to take Correa, I often lean elsewhere, whether it’s for more steals, an arm, or the knowledge that I can replicate, or come close to matching, Correa’s numbers at a better price later on.
Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
baseball-reference.com
steamerprojections.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
Player News
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.