It’s no secret catcher continues to be a dearth of fantasy production. Once a beacon of hope, injuries and declining performance took a toll on Buster Posey last season. Coming off of hip surgery in 2018, Posey also lost time due to a concussion and a hamstring strain. However, it’s the decline in launch angle and spike in ground balls working in unison against Posey. He appeared in 114 games last year with 43 runs, seven home runs, 38 RBI and a .257/.320/.368 slash line over 445 plate appearances.
Beneath the reduced counting statistics, Posey recorded a 7.6 percent walk rate and a 16 percent strikeout rate with a .111 isolated power. He became more aggressive increasing his swinging strike percentage by three percent affecting a drop of 5.5 percentage points in his contact rate. One good sign, Posey maintained an above average Z-Contact rate (in the strike zone) of 91.1 percent.
According to Statcast, Posey generated 336 batted ball events with 16 barrels (4.8 percent), an 88.4 MPH average exit velocity and a 9.1-degree launch angle. Continuing downward trends, Posey notched a hard-hit percentage of 36 percent during the year of home runs up across the board and his sweet spot percent also declined to 32.4 percent. Before checking out his expected numbers, here’s Posey’s spray chart from last year:
With the knowledge the Giants will be moving in the fences by five feet in left-center field, eight feet in center field and six feet in right-center field. While this may not boost home run totals at Oracle Park appreciably, it could help Posey who hits to center and right-center field often. In 2019, Posey finished with an expected batting average of .254 and expected slugging of .419 but some hope of a rebound in weighted on-base average which finished 17 points below his expected rate. Posey hits to the center of the field almost 40 percent of the time and to the opposite field 31 percent of his batted ball data. Here’s his zone profile courtesy of Statcast:
Any positive movement in Posey’s power numbers would be a benefit to his fantasy value. Beneath his totals from last year, Posey owned a home run per fly ball percentage of two percent at home. Less than optimal. He notched a 13 percent home run rate on the road but also produced more ground balls away from San Francisco. Rising ground ball rates worked against him especially in August and September. A key thing to watch with Posey in spring will be his ground outs versus air outs. Any progress in launch angle, with health in his legs could allow Posey to return to double-digits in home runs. It’s not likely, but possible.
Over the last three years, Posey’s played in 363 games with 153 runs, 24 home runs, 151 RBI, nine stolen bases and a .290/.364/.407 slash line spanning just under 1,500 plate appearances. His .117 isolated power in this sample caps power but much will depend on if Posey can improve his hard-hit rates while producing more line drives and fly balls. Last year, Posey’s line drive rate fell by six percent affecting his average and overall production. Legs provide the foundation while hitting, so health and a slight adjustment may allow Posey to rebound.
Projection systems take into account recent production with an eye on the future. Here are Posey’s numbers from three different systems:
- Buster Posey 2020 Steamer Projection - 117 games, 508 plate appearances, 55 runs, 11 home runs, 56 RBI, two stolen bases; .275/.347/.410
- Buster Posey 2020 ATC Projection - 118 games, 475 plate appearances, 49 runs, eight home runs, 47 RBI, stolen base; .270/.341/.383
- Buster Posey 2020 THE BAT Projection - 125 games, 491 plate appearances, 52 runs, nine home runs, 53 RBI, two stolen bases; .274/.343/.390
In one-catcher leagues, Posey’s a late-round dart-throw with a little upside. He makes for a perfect complement to a roster loaded with power seeking batting average insulation. Same goes for two-catcher leagues where his average proves even more alluring. Any movement towards double-digit home runs enhances his value. Perhaps Posey sees this season as a chance to prove his worth and this motivates him. Seeing Joey Bart on the cusp of the majors cannot be overlooked. Taking into account the new park dimensions, health and early returns in the spring in terms of air outs, rostering Buster Posey at his present price point makes sense. Just pay for THE BAT projection and profit if he reaches the Steamer totals.
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Statistical Credits:
BaseballSavant.com
Fangraphs.com
Spotrac.com
Steamerprojections.com
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
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