2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Blake Snell

In 2018, Blake Snell went 21-5 across 31 starts, posting a 1.89 ERA and an awesome 11.01 K/9. In 2019, however, it was a bit of a different story. He was incredibly unlucky, as the opposition posted a .343 BABIP, which was 100 points higher than the previous season, and while his ERA came in at a 4.29, the FIP (3.32) and xFIP (3.31) tell a much different story. He posted a higher strikeout rate and a lot of his pitches remained at a similar velocity. At just 27 years of age, Snell has some questions heading into 2020. Are we getting the fantasy ace from 2018, or is it going to be another year of measly luck that leads Snell to disappoint fantasy owners? I know which way I’m leaning.

While Snell’s numbers weren’t quite what they were in 2018, it was mostly just some bad luck for the young southpaw. I already stated the BABIP disparity, and that number should come crashing down this season, which certainly helps some of the numbers. Take a look at some of these marks that show Snell was actually better in 2019, on a statistical standpoint, compared to his Cy Young 2018 season.

Courtesy of Fangraphs and Baseball Savant

So, you’re telling me that Snell missed more bats, forced more whiffs, allowed a lower barrel rate, and did WORSE from the year before? Exactly. Hey, that’s what a freakin’ .343 BABIP will do to you!

Furthermore, when you look at the expected batted averages, it’s like… C’mon man!!

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

What is there to make from the numbers above? While Snell vastly exceeded expectations in 2018, he was on the wrong side of it in 2019. Opponents hit 35 points better than expected against Snell, and slugged a higher percentage as well. Now, part of that is on Snell, too, so don’t think he’s getting away from all of this unscathed. He allowed a higher line drive rate last year, and his ground ball rate dropped from basically 44 percent in 2017 and 2018 to just 39 percent in 2019. His HR/FB rate was substantially higher (15.4%) as well, so perhaps if the combination of better luck on those, as well as simply less fly balls in general, Snell can get closer to his expected marks.

While his repertoire essentially stayed the same, he utilized some of his weapons a bit different. The biggest difference was the usage rate on his curveball, as that jumped over four percent from the prior season. He used his slider less because of this, and while the slider was a force for him in 2018, it was a problem for him in 2019. His curveball, however, has remained steady throughout his young big league tenure.

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

The results weren’t there for the slider in 2019, but that will bounceback, giving him nice two breaking pitches to put hitters away for the foreseeable future.

Snell missed some time last year with an injury, which was the culprit for taking those valuable innings away from the Rays and Snell’s fantasy owners. He was limited to 107 innings last season, because he had to have “loose bodies” removed from his throwing elbow. He was able to return from that injury and there is no concern for it heading into 2020. His velocity was a bit down, but that was to be expected. He’ll be just fine.

Most of the popular projections systems are on board with Snell here in 2020, likening him to a win total in the low teens, with well over a strikeout per inning, and an ERA hovering in the 3.30-3.40 range. I think that’s a safe floor for Snell in 2020, considering that’s where most of his peripheral numbers placed him last season. For me, he’s somewhere in between the peripherals of 2019 and the Cy Young season of 2018.

Snell is currently the 10^th pitcher off the board, per the numbers of the NFBC, and I am completely comfortable with him headlining my pitching staff in 2020. He’s proven that he can be a fantasy ace, and he’ll show it again in 2020.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball