2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Anthony Rizzo

Anthony Rizzo continues to provide fantasy owners with consistency and when you select Rizzo, you know what you’re getting. He’s going to give you a solid average with 30-ish home runs, and a steady dose of runs scored and runs batted in. He used to run a bit, as evidenced by his 17 stolen bases in 2015 and ten bags in 2017, but over the past two years, he’s swiped just 11 bags in 299 games. He’s an awesome asset in leagues that value on-base percentage, considering that he’s posted a double digit walk rate every year since 2013. Additionally, his strikeout rate has remained under 16 percent for five straight seasons. The monster fantasy upside is no longer there, but there’s nothing wrong with a durable, consistent option to steady your team.

Rizzo doesn’t jump off the page as a Statcast freak. His average exit velocity is about league average, as is his hard hit rate, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t any metrics that aren’t concerning with Rizzo. Every year since 2015, his launch angle has decreased, and his barrel rate hasn’t matched what it was in his 30+ homer season days.

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

To put it into slightly different terms, using 2019 data, his launch angle of 17.3 degrees a few years ago, rivals Trevor Story (17.3), Gleyber Torres (17.4), and Cody Bellinger (17.6 degrees), whereas his 12.4 mark from last season is in Ji-Man Choi (12.6), Albert Pujols (12.4), and J.D. Martinez (12.5) range. Wait, Martinez!? Hold your horses. Martinez’s average exit velocity was nearly three miles per hour faster overall, and about 2.5 miles per hour faster on fly balls and line drives specifically.

Rizzo’s .293 batting average last year was a career-high, which is exceptional, and comes at a point in time where teams are shifting against him more than ever. He beats it by pulling the ball less, and could he be hitting the ball on the ground more to beat the shift? Perhaps slapping balls on the ground to the left side of the field is a route he’s going to beat the shift.

Interestingly enough, perhaps, in 2019 with no shift, batted balls to the opposite field resulted in a .273 average. When a shift was deployed, however, he hit .414. Maybe it’s not ground balls, but it does appear that there is an increased emphasis on using the left side of the field to essentially “hit it where they ain’t.”

Rizzo has been known for solid plate discipline and is willingness to choke up with two strikes puts him in a mindset that he will not strike out. Because of this, his strikeout rate is low, and he’s a threat to have a higher walk rate than strikeout rate in 2020. Will it happen in 2020, however? When you look at his O-Swing%, it’s up from previous years, his overall contact rate is down slightly, and he whiffed more in 2019 than he did in 2017 and 2018. His strikeout rate last year was still below his career marks, but it was up a percentage point or two from previous seasons.

Rizzo doesn’t carry the elite upside others offer at the position, but he’s a rock-solid, consistent option who’s going to deliver 27-32 home runs, approach 100 runs and 100 RBI with above-average marks in terms of batting average and on-base percentage (OBP). He’s massively undervalued in OBP leagues, considering Rizzo is projected by Steamer to have the highest OBP of all first baseman, Cody Bellinger and Freddie Freeman included!

To further present that Rizzo might be slightly undervalued this year, let’s have some more fun with Steamer’s projections. There are four first baseman projected to have at least 30 home runs, 95 runs scored, and 95 RBI. Three of which are being drafted within the first 35 picks. Rizzo is the only one outside of the first three rounds.

Courtesy of Steamer Projections and NFBC ADP

Rizzo will need to combat his decreasing launch angle if he wants to increase, or even maintain, his home run total from last year. That’s a tall task, however, considering it’s declined four straight years. The added emphasis on beating the shift and doing what’s best for the team may detract from the power numbers, but it should help his batting average mark. Additionally, if he can cut down on last year’s 14 percent strikeout rate, and chase/whiff less, it could be another .400+ OBP season.

Rizzo isn’t the sexiest pick, but he’s a producer in all categories, pretty good for speed at first base all things considered, and helps level out your fantasy team.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
steamerprojections.com