The cheating scandal aside, it’s been a tumultuous offseason for the Red Sox with having to replace their fired GM in Dave Dombrowski after he gutted the system and signed a lot of big contracts to win a World Series, and then the chaos of the Mookie Betts -David Price trade as well. After making a three-team trade, they backed out and didn’t like the return from the Twins and instead made the trade just with the Dodgers for what appears to be a better long-term package for them. The system is toward the bottom in both the Top-100 and Top-300 organizational rankings and have a lot of guys with lower floors but higher ceilings throughout their system.
Org. Rank (100): 28 | Division Rank (100): 5th | Top-100 Prospects: 2 |
Org. Rank (300): 23 | Division Rank (300): 5th | Top-300 Prospects: 8 |
Affiliate | Level | League |
DSL Red Sox 1 & 2 | Rookie Summer League | Dominican Summer League |
GCL Red Sox | Rookie League | Gulf Coast League |
Lowell Spinners | Short-Season A | New York-Penn League |
Greenville Drive | Class A | South Atlantic League |
Salem Red Sox | Class A Advanced | Carolina League |
Portland Sea Dogs | Double-A | Eastern League |
Pawtucket Red Sox | Triple-A | International League |
Top Prospects In The System
Pos. - 1B/3B Ht/Wt - 6’4” 238 lbs. Bats: L Throws: R Age: 20
Level - A-Advanced Drafted - 2018 (1.26) ETA: 2022
Grades: Hit: 50 Power: 65 Run: 30 Arm: 60 Field: 55
Casas was taken as one of the top prep hitters in his class in 2018 and a guy who has a calling card skill in his power tool. The power is real and some scouts have as good as a 70-grade skill for the 20-year-old and it’s a skill that’s already showing up in the games. The defensive skills measure as plus and will always keep his bat in the lineup even if the hit tool doesn’t fully come to fruition. Speaking of the hit tool, it’s not nearly as prolific as the power is but it’s good enough to get the job done as at least major league average. In 118 games played at A-ball in 2019, Casas slashed .254/.349/.472 with a .300 BABIP and .370 wOBA while putting 19 over the fence, driving in 78, scoring 64, and stealing three bags. That’s a pretty good demonstration of his full range of tools and how the speed is clearly the lacking one. Casas can play both first and third in the infield with his likely destination being first base as Rafael Devers appears to be blocking him at the hot corner in Boston. Gold Glove caliber defense and a bat with as much power as anyone in the game will be his calling cards to Boston and he profiles as a quintessential middle of the order bat from the left-handed batter’s box.
Pos. - 2B Ht/Wt - 5’11” 180 lbs. Bats: R Throws: R Age: 21
Level - Double-A Drafted: 2017 (2.32) ETA: 2022
Grades: Hit: 50 Power: 55 Speed: 55 Arm: 50 Field: 45
When all was settled with the Betts-Price trade, it was Downs, not Brusdar Graterol coming to Boston along with Alex Verdugo (and catching prospect Connor Wong). Downs is a former second-round pick of the Reds just two and a half years ago, but already is in his third organization. He’s a guy that gets rave reviews for his work ethic but there are serious tools to go along with that. In 119 games split between High-A and Double-A last year with the Dodgers, he hit .276 with a .362 OBP and a .307 BABIP while producing 24 homers, 24 steals, 92 runs, and 86 RBI. The ability to put the bat on the ball is key for a middle infielder but his ability to draw walks is impressive for a still relatively young hitter as he had an 11-percent walk rate in those 119 games. He has all the hallmarks of a top of the order type hitter who can do damage with the hit or power or speed tools and draws enough walks to get him on base even when the bat isn’t working as well as it should. The defense is a work in progress, but he’ll have a few years to get that right before taking the keystone spot at Fenway Field starting in 2022 as a potential 20-20 guy right from the jump.
Pos. - 3B Ht/Wt - 6’4” 225 lbs. Bats: R Throws: R Age: 24
Level - Triple-A Drafted - 2016 (4.118) ETA: 2020
Grades: Hit: 40 Power: 60 Run: 40 Arm: 65 Field: 55
Dalbec has been progressing steadily through the Red Sox system since being draft in June of 2016 and made it all the way to his first taste of Triple-A Pawtucket last year for the final 30 games of his season. Over the course of 135 games in 2019, Dalbec slashed .240/.356/.460 with 27 home runs, 73 RBI, 69 runs, and six steals which pretty well spells out the skills possesses. He’ll likely never hit for average as there’s just too much swing and miss in his game, but he does have plate discipline given his 13-percent walk rate in that span. The power is legit with Dalbec, just like Casas above him, and there’s a chance that the power will actually increase his batting average once he gets to Fenway as he has the capability of peppering doubles off the Green Monster with regularity. The question for Dalbec is where will he play defensively as his natural position of third base is covered at the moment. He likely plays first base for Boston as they played him at 24 games there in the minors in 2019 before he got run at first in the Arizona Fall League. Reports out of Red Sox camp is that they are fine with him at first and that’s where they’ll have him compete in spring training to try and make the team out of camp. I’m not a huge fan of comps, but Dalbec has a game that’s reminiscent of Paul DeJong in which power is big part of it with solid defense but the average won’t ever be there the way fantasy owners might like it to be.
Pos. - RHP Ht/Wt - 6’3” 182 lbs. Bats: R Throws: R Age: 22
Level - A-Advanced Drafted - 2018 (5.160) ETA: 2021
Grades: Fastball: 55 Slider: 60 Cutter: 55 Changeup: 50 Control: 50
Ward has been a faster mover since being drafted in 2018 as he’s reached High-A and pitched 54 innings there last year. The lankier righty uses his slider as his main pitch along side the fastball and then uses his cutter and changeup to mix in and keep hitters off-balance; and it seems to be working. In 2019, over 126.1 innings split between Class-A and High-A, he pitched to a 2.14 ERA, 3.28 FIP, and 3.35 xFIP with an 11.2 K/9 (29.9-percent K-rate) and a solid 1.16 WHIP and .196 average against. All of those numbers were helped by the addition of the cutter to his repertoire before the start of last season and that pitch also firms up his future role as a starter rather than a swingman as most had him as before the Cutter’s arrival. The velocity can still tick up a bit on the fastball that sits 91-94 mph but can hit 96 and the cutter in the upper-80s and if the velocity kicks up as he adds some weight to his 6’3” frame, they both jump to plus pitches and join the slider that is a weapon in and out of the zone. Control can be an issue from time to time but it’s improving and if it keeps improving, he’ll slot in as a likely number 3-4 starter late in 2021 for Boston.
Pos. - RHP Ht/Wt - 6’4” 200 lbs. Bats: R Throws: R Age: 22
Level - A-Short Drafted - 2019 (4.137) ETA: 2023
Grades: Fastball: 60 Curveball: 55 Slider: 55 Changeup: 45 Control: 50
Song is an interesting prospect, perhaps one of the most interesting in all of the minor leagues, and it’s the reason he’s not higher than the Red Sox number five prospect. He put on an absolute show in his final two years at Navy, pitching 183 combined innings with a 1.67 ERA, 13.9 K/9 rate, 1.00 WHIP, and a 282:72 K:BB ratio. The stuff is perhaps the best in the Sox system from a pureness standpoint as he basically has three plus pitches right now and generates them from a quick three-quarters delivery that’s been very repeatable and consistent with control. The fastball sits 93-96 and touches 98 with late, exploding life that jumps on hitters and he combines that well with a slider that sits in the mid-80s and has very good shape when he gets on top of it properly. The curveball is still a work in progress but has the potential to be a plus pitch if he can get the delivery shortened on it and the spin rate up to tighten up the bite while the changeup lags behind and is more of a keep-the-batter-honest type pitch at the moment. So what makes him interesting? Well he went to Navy, which means he has to finish two years of service before he can go on to his pro baseball career. That means the 17 innings of pro ball he pitched at Short-Season A-ball in Lowell in 2019 is the only ones he’ll pitch on a pro mound for a couple of seasons and so his development will also be on hold so there’s a question as to whether he’ll hold on to his stuff over that time. If he does, there’s the potential to be a number two starter but if not it might reduce him to a reliever role to get him to the majors faster after the layoff.
Prospects To Watch For
RHP Age: 20 Double-A ETA: 2021
The righty was signed in 2016 and since then has been progressing steadily through the Red Sox farm system, though they are making sure to keep his innings load a bit lighter than you’d expect to this point. At 6’3” and close to 200 lbs (listed as 160 pounds as of his signing) he has the frame to be a number two or three starter but there are some issues with his delivery that might make a number three starter more likely as the innings load might not be there long-term. He doesn’t get quite as much from his lower half as he should and if you watch the video below (he’s the pitcher in the middle), you’ll notice there really isn’t a knee bend in the delivery and it’s fairly arm heavy. That being said, he does possess four potential above-average pitches in his arsenal with a mid-90s fastball that is more of a sinker down in the zone but flattens out when elevated. The Cutter was added in spring training of 2019 and has the potential to be a plus offering especially against left-handed hitters but it can lengthen out to more a slider look when it’s thrown more in the upper-80s rather than the low-90s. The changeup and curveball are further behind the other two and are right now inconsistent in terms of control and depth but the curveball does have nice two-plane break on it and could be an above-average pitch when all is said and done. His ratios have been consistent at each stop so far though he did make a big jump up in K-rate in 2019 across two levels and increased his ground-ball rate as well and that’s mainly due to the added cutter as lefty were his bugaboo in 2018.
Boston’s top pitching prospect, Bryan Mata, throwing next to Brian Johnson . pic.twitter.com/cPEGE2GGm0
— Nick Friar (@Nick_Friar) February 12, 2020
OF Age: 19 Short-A ETA: 2023
Jimenez was a big international signing for the Red Sox in the 2017 class and he’s got a boatload of tools at his disposal to make him perhaps the most exciting outfield prospect in the system. He’s got a plus-hit tool due to the plus bat speed and quick hands he possesses but the issue is that there are a lot of moving parts in his swing(s) from both sides of the plate. The left-handed swing starts crouched and open and then uses a toe tap as a timing method but keeps the bat in the zone for a shorter time compared to the longer and cleaner right-handed swing that also generates more power at the moment. His power isn’t a big part of his game...yet, but it will come as he learns how to drive the ball rather than slap at it and should be at least an average power-hitter when fully developed. His main tool at the moment is his double-plus speed that ranks between 70-80 grade depending on who you talk to with a 4.0-second time to first from home. In 126 total games in the low minors, Jimenez has stolen 30 bags but has been caught 20 times indicating he still needs to learn how to make the most of his speed. The speed helps his defense as he is still raw with his instincts and jump on the ball as well as the routes he runs. If everything works out, he’ll be a .300 hitter with 35-plus steal speed and the ability to hit 15-20 homers while playing above-average defense, though this is still a few years away as young and raw as he is.
OF Age: 23 Double-A ETA: 2021
Duran is a quintessential seventh-round selection in that he has a tool or two that are above-average to plus and the rest of them are works in progress. For Duran, it’s his hit tool that’s plus and speed that’s truly double-plus but the power is well-below-average and won’t improve much, the fielding is barely average as the routes are rough and jumps aren’t great, and the arm is fringy even for centerfield. The Cal State Long Beach product has advanced to Double-A after being drafted in 2018 and in 2019, he played 132 combined games with a .303/.366/.409 slash line and five homers, 90 runs, 38 RBI, and 46 steals with an impressive .390 BABIP. While that stat line is great and it’s similar enough to his 2018 introduction to pro ball, there is a bit of a concerning trend brewing in that his K-rate has risen steadily at each step he’s progressed to indicating he needs to work on his pitch recognition and patience. He is a top-of-the-order type hitter and a menace on the basepaths. Think Trea Turner with less power.
#RedSox Jarren Duran taking Fall Stars BP. pic.twitter.com/4oSaLjCctj
— Emily Waldon (@EmilyCWaldon) October 12, 2019
Matthew Lugo
SS Age: 18 Rookie Ball ETA: 2024
He was drafted in the most recent draft in the second round out of Puerto Rico and gives the Red Sox one of the most projectable players in their whole system. Lugo has an above-average hit tool that flashes plus at times but still needs to be better against offspeed pitches. The power is gap-to-gap currently but there is some hope that with added weight on his frame the power will bump up to above-average and the over-the-fence variety. He has plus-speed with fluid movement though that might drop a step or two if he adds more bulk though it’ll be at worst above-average. The arm and defense are both potential good tools though the defense needs a lot of work with fundamental positioning there is still a good chance that he could be a five-tool shortstop or second baseman several years from now and there is the fact that he’s the nephew of Carlos Beltrán.
Congrats to SS Matthew Lugo on being selected by the @RedSox 69th overall in the @MLBDraft. Lugo shows inherent feel for the game w/ excellent plate coverage and smooth actions in the field. Made his mark this past summer w/ the @florida_legends at our @ProspectWire events pic.twitter.com/LUMHUinKxs
— Ryan Bozeman (@PW_RyanB) June 4, 2019
SS Age: 19 Short-A ETA: 2023
The now 19-year-old was an international signing in the 2017 class and since then has been developing in rookie ball until making it to Lowell this past season. There isn’t necessarily a standout tool for Flores but there is room to grow and potentially develop four of them into above-average tools in a few years. Flores has a 50-grade hit tool, 45-grade power, 55-grade speed, 60-grade Arm, and 45-grade fielding tools currently, but the power and fielding should continue to improve with more time in the Sox system and tapping into his already mature frame at 6’1” and 190 pounds. The stroke is fluid with nice bat speed and quick hands though there are some moving pieces that will have to be toned down a touch to be more consistent although he does have a two-strike approach already. Flores has the potential to be a solid player with four above-average skillsets that translate to a .280 average 20 home runs, and 15 steals while playing solid defense at shortstop.