Every year there are high rankings players on draft boards that become complete busts thanks to injuries, decline or players just having down seasons. Last year shortstops Carlos Correa and Corey Seager became busts because of back and elbow issues respectively. Gary Sánchez disappointed with a batting average under .200 with various injuries, and Brian Dozier became a catastrophe partly because of injuries, but perhaps also the pressure of a contract year and having to change leagues mid-season.
This year there are ten players that I think will be over drafted and become busts and I’ll be staying away from them and here they are:
- Joey Votto , 1B Cincinnati Reds
Votto, 35, has made the National League All Star team each of the last two years and hasn’t had an on-base percentage below 40% since 2014. However, I’m starting to see age and decline in both his first step and bat speed and think we’re going to see a real dip in his production in 2019 in all phases of the game. Remember, I’m the one that drafted him in reality when I was GM of the Cincinnati Reds so it pains me to have say that because no one roots harder for him than I do.
- Tommy Pham , OF Tampa Bay Rays
Pham is a fantasy dream because we’ve all seen him hit 20 homers each of the last two years and average 20 stolen bases per season during that time span to go along with a .380 on-base percentage. However, also remember in his career he’s never played more than 140 games ever and only twice in his professional career has he had 500 at-bats and those came in the last two years. He’ll play this year at 31 and most players whose game starts with their legs start to decline at this point like Carl Crawford, Michael Bourne, B.J. Upton and Dexter Fowler . The analytics say be careful, but the scouts say don’t worry about it. You decide.
- David Peralta , OF Arizona Diamondbacks
Peralta had his career year last season slashing .293/.352/.516 with 30 home runs, 124 OPS+, a war of 3.9 and even won the Silver Slugger Award. Although his average and on-base percentage are pretty close to normal numbers it’s the home runs that look more like the aberration. Most algorithms agree with the scouts that the homers will come back to the 16-18 range and since he’s not a stolen base threat and no longer has Paul Goldschmidt to either drive him in or vice versa, I think all his fantasy numbers will be coming back to the norm.
- Byron Buxton , OF Minnesota Twins
I know what you’re thinking. Either he belongs in the sleeper list or how can he possibly be a bust after hitting .156 with 0 home runs? I will tell you why…because so many scouts and the Twins front office still think he’s going to develop into a 20/20 or even 30/30 player and a lot of them think he will bust out this year since he’s now 25-years old when prime years are supposed to hit. I love four of his five tools, but I have never seen the “hit” tool ever. Therefore, I think he’s going to be over drafted once again because of the home run and stolen base potential and once again be the same bust he’s been his whole career.
- Carlos Santana , 1B Cleveland Indians
Santana was traded back to the Indians this off-season and most analysts think he’ll return to the form of his 2016 season when he belted 34 home runs and drove in 87 runs with a .366 on-base percentage. I don’t see it that way. I saw decline last year with his first step, his defense, and his hand eye coordination. I think people will draft him earlier than he should be because he’s returning to the Indians. He will play at age 33 and I think his fantasy numbers will decrease across the board so much so that Jake Bauers may end up their first baseman by the All Star break.
- Ian Desmond , 1B/OF Colorado Rockies
Desmond got off to a slow start, but somehow ended up with 22 home runs and 20 stolen bases despite an OPS+ of 83 and a negative war of -0.6. Desmond will play at 33 years old, but his three-year downward trend in on-base percentage and batting average is telling. Don’t be surprised if he loses his job altogether by August.
- Luke Voit , 1B New York Yankees
The Yankees love Voit and GM Brian Cashman is so proud to give full credit to his Asst. GM Michael Fishman and the analytics department who recommended they acquire him. No one can argue his first year results with the Yankees. In 143 at-bats, he slashed an impressive .322/.398/.671 with 15 home runs and 36 runs batted in. The 27-year old also has an impressive minor league record which includes a .370 on-base percentage and 65 home runs in 1,982 at-bats. However, I think he can be pitched to and now that the league knows how dangerous he can be they will be pitching much differently to him in his sophomore year. I expect regression and won’t be surprised if he’s a bench player by June. Be careful here.
- Randal Grichuk , OF Toronto Blue Jays
This is my annual “don’t do it” for Howard Bender. He loves Grichuk and drafts him late every year. And I get why he likes him because the power is real and you’ll get 22-25 home runs a year. However, you also get a .248 batting average and a 30% on-base percentage at best. I love his speed too but he doesn’t steal bases. He’s never scored or driven in 70 runs and he’s played five years in the majors. I’ll pass.
- Nick Markakis , OF Atlanta Braves
Markakis had a solid season slashing .297/.366/.440 with 78 runs, 14 home runs and 93 runs batted in. When you look at the overall stats you might consider him a sleeper. However, let’s look closer. In the second half of the season he hit just .252 with only 4 home runs and 32 runs batted in. It looks like age is finally catching up to the 35-year old.
- C.J. Cron , 1B Minnesota Twins
The Twins front office was dancing in the streets when they learned they had been awarded Cron off waivers from the Tampa Bay Rays. Cron, 28, has legitimate power as shown by his 30 home runs last year and 74 runs batted in. He also has holes at the plate and despite his 123 OPS+ and 2.0 war he can be pitched to and is a below average defender. Can he stay at first base with the Twins? Or will he be moved to DH. Will he be an every- day bat or end up a platoon player? I don’t know the answer, but if you want the power then draft him because I think 25-30 home runs is repeatable, but I also don’t think you’ll get any of the other categories or numbers that make it worthwhile to draft him simply for his power. I consider him a one-category player and that’s not a formula that works in fantasy.
While everyone would like as much information up-front and ahead of time, sometimes you need a little more time to identify those who are going to disappoint. Maybe there's a spring injury, an ADP that's just too high or a free agent signing that affects value. Whatever the case may be, it allows us to now identify some additional future disappointments.
11. Clayton Kershaw , SP Los Angeles Dodgers
If you isolate the window between February 15 and the current day for NFBC ADP, you'll see Kershaw has dropped to 55.35 which makes him the 16th overall pitcher off the board. Yes, that's still too high. He threw a 20-pitch bullpen session Monday, March 11 which was the first time he threw since February 20. He was limited to only fastballs and while he claimed to be pleased with the session and manager Dave Roberts suggested he could be back in time for Opening Day, there has to be some massive skepticism here. He still needs to be stretched out and then mix in his secondary offerings. It would be a huge surprise to see him return for Opening Day and an even bigger surprise to see him stay healthy for the remainder of the season once he starts throwing at full-speed on a regular schedule. There needs to be a much bigger discount to get involved here.
12. Carlos Martínez , SP St. Louis Cardinals
The shoulder continues to be a problem for C-Mart and the latest reports have him out until at least the beginning of May. Last season's isssues are already cropping up this spring and for a guy who saw his strikeout rate drop while his walk rate increase the way it did last year, there needs to be caution exhibited here regardless of where his ERA finished up last season. We already know he's not making 30 starts this year, given the news, and there's really no guarantee he even returns at the time the team is speculating. Even at a discounted cost, he's going to be a much breater headache that he will be a fantasy savior.
13. Edwin Encarnación , 1B/DH Seattle Mariners
Since leaving the safe confines of the Rogers Centre after 2016, we've seen the steady decline in numbers for Encarnacion. Even if you want to discuss ballpark differentials between Progressive Field and Rogers Centre, the year to year drop we witnessed between 2017 and last year push the decline front-and-center even more. His power numbers have declined, his walk rate has dropped, strikeouts are up and the majority of his rate stats, both primary and peripheral, have gone down. Now he's in an even worse park for hitters on a team that lacks a big enough power threat to protect him in the lineup. Age and injuries have taken their toll on him and the decline is a reality. If you can avoid him, you probably should.
14. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 3B Toronto Blue Jays
The recent oblique strain only compounds the fact that, in re-draft leagues, Vladdy Jr. is not going to be worth the price tag. Keeper leagues? Absolutely. Start-up dynasty leagues? Grab him. But if you're playing year-to-year now, you're better off using that fourth-round pick on someone of more immediate quality. Not only are we dealing with the oblique strain which will take some time to recover from, but there's also the service time issue. The Jays know they're not competing this year, so leaving Guerrero in the minors is no big deal for them. They want the extra year of control and that's all that matters to them right now. And let's not forget about the fact that, even though he is a future stud -- and believe me, he is -- he's going to need to time to adjust to big-league pitching and once they make adjustments to him, he's going to have to do it again. Let him go for this year at his cost andd go after him in 2020.
15. José Altuve , 2B Houston Astros
Last season it was the knee injury and now there's something wrong with his side. It's not that I don't sstill love Altuve, but with the way people are valuing stolen bases and drafting him still just on name alone, the price is getting a little too steep for a guy who is making me awfully nervous right now. If he were healthy, I'd be fine taking him in the late first or early second round, but until I see him playing regularly, I am going to back off and express concern that he will not return the value you want when you draft him inside the top-20 overall.
16. Mike Foltynewicz , SP Atlanta Braves
First he was shut down for elbow soreness and now we're told he has already been ruled out for Opening Day. This is an immediate red flag, especially for a guy who has gradually increased the use of his slider over the years. He threw it more than 27-percent of the time last year in a season where he also threw a career-high innings. The strain he has put on his elbow is now catching up to him and is in serious danger of being the first to hit the DL with a need for Tommy John surgery. Obviously that's just speculation, but the early red flags should be enough to keep me (and you) from drafting him.
17. Luis Severino , SP New York Yankees
Similar to Foltynewicz, the early spring injury is immediately throwing up a red flag. Last season's second half was a massive drop-off from how he opened the year and now the shoulder issues are putting him in danger of missing Opening Day. He says the shoulder feels better following a cortisone shot, but that's a typical immediate reaction. What we need to see is what happens to him once he starts throwing again. As it stands right now, his NFBC ADP is 41.92 and that's just too high a pick to invest in a buy who could miss serious time if his shoulder doesn't stabilize.
18. Aroldis Chapman , RP New York Yankees
Is it ok if I just re-tweet everything Greg Jewett said in "The Player You Must Avoid"? I think he was spot-on with his analysis and let's also not forget the way this bullpen is structured. Between Adam Ottavino , Dellin Betances and Zack Britton , the Yankees have plenty of options for the ninth inning that the leash may not be very long with Chapman.
19. BrIan Anderson, 3B/OF Miami Marlins
The first half of last year really put Anderson on the map as he was a FAAB/waiver wire darling for a number of people. His dual-eligibility at third base and in the outfield made him even more attractive and he left his owners reasonably satisfied with a .288 average with eight homers and 49 RBI. He also had 55 runs scored and even swiped a pair of bags. But that was the end of the line for him as he spent the entire second half batting just .245 with three home runs and 16 RBI. The overall numbers mask how bad the second half was and yet people are still intrigued by him. Listen, if you want a third baseman who can give you 10 home runs, then go ahead, he's all yours. Personally I'll take everyone else over him because he's not going to come close to touching even just his first half totals from last year.
20. Adam Jones , OF Arizona Diamondbacks
He was in decline in Baltimore and now the 33-year old is going to try and cross over into the NL and find successs. Not going to happen. He may not even polay every day consiodering how the Diamondbacks wanted to give Ketel Marte some time in the outfield. Jones doesn't play center the way he used to, nor does he swing the bat as well. The ballpark shift from hitter-friemndly Camden Yards to Humidortown in Chase Field could be a negative shift for him as well. When a guy goes from making $17M a year to $3M and has to now go to a new city, a new environment and a new clubhouse...well, let's just say...not ideal.