Heading into every season prognosticators and analysts alike produce lists of prospect rankings. Whether it be the top-20, top-50, top-100, or top-300 in some cases the general point is the same, rank the prospects, regardless of organization, amongst each other to let folks know who you believe are the top guys to pay attention to or guys further down the list worth owning for the long haul. Typically I don’t release my rankings, though I do make them, for this report, I will release my mid-season update as a means of showing who’s moved up with nearly a dozen of the pre-season top-100 already graduating from systems and where this year’s top draft picks rank. This week is a good week to view them since seven of the nine minor league All-Star Games happened last week signaling the traditional mid-point of a baseball season. The biggest movers and some newcomers will be the focus of this piece.
System Rankings
This table shows where the teams ranked as a system both pre-season and now mid-season. The “Total” column is the total points the system is credited with based on where prospects rank in the top-100 with the top prospect getting 100 points and the 100th getting one and point totals dropping by one for each lower spot. The “Change” column shows the difference between where the teams rank now versus where they started before the season. Positive numbers are a move up and negative numbers are a move down.
Prospect Ranks
The following tables show the current top-100 prospects in baseball by my rank. The pre-season rankings column shows their rank at that time with the NR meaning not ranked, the Adj. pre-season rank column shows their rank once the 14 prospects that were in the top-100 pre-season that have graduated, are removed and they are simply moved up in that framework. The mid-season rank is the current rankings as I see them including the draft picks that slot into the top-100 right now. The two change columns show the change from pre-season ranks to mid-season and the adj. rankings to mid-season.
Top-30 Prospects
Wander Franco , SS TB – The news here is that Franco is the new number one prospect in baseball. He shot to stardom last year after a remarkable showing in Rookie ball in the Gulf Coast League with a .351/.418/.587 slash line over 242 AB with 11 homers, 57 RBI, 46 runs, and four steals in 61 games. He’s now backed up that showing with a .322/.395/.508 slash line in 236 at-bats between A-Ball and High-A with six home runs, 42 runs, 29 RBI, and 15 steals in 62 games. Franco is still just 18, having turned so back in March, and yet may be the rare exception in the Rays system that moves so fast he hits the majors at just 20 years old. He has five plus tools already and the tops of that is a 70-grade hit tool. With more maturing in his frame to do, he’s just 5’10” and 189 lbs., there is more power coming and he’s likely a .310-30-100-100-30 guy in the middle infield when fully develops in a few years.
Luis Robert , OF CWS – Robert was signed in May of 2017 out of Cuba by the White Sox, but injuries have curtailed his development over his first two pro seasons. Now in his third, He’s destroying the minors with a .352/.404/.640 slash line in 66 games between High-A Winston-Salem and Double-A Birmingham along with 15 homers, 53 runs, 51 RBI, 22 steals, 19 doubles, and six triples. Despite being an outfielder and not a switch-hitter, the best comp for Robert is a likely future teammate of his in Yoán Moncada in the power-speed combo they possess and the swing and miss that’s in their games as well. While Robert’s counting stats are great, he has struck out 67 times in 264 at-bats for a 25.3-percent K-rate this year. A 30-30-player is what he projects to be when all is said and done which are hard to find nowadays.
Jarred Kelenic, OF SEA – Kelenic was a key piece in the Edwin Díaz -Robinson Canó trade this offseason between Mets and Mariners. It was a big piece for the Mets to give up as they had drafted Kelenic sixth overall in the 2018 draft out of the high school ranks. Since heading to the Mariners system, he’s really started to show what he can do as he’s moved up to High-A Modesto and over a combined 63 games in 2019 he’s hitting .297/.376/.561 with four home runs, 42 runs, 37 RBI, and 11 steals. His two best traits are his hit and arm tools that are both plus skills at this point but are closely followed by his power, run, and fielding tools which are all above average. Kelenic is a great barreler of the baseball from the left side of the dish and his advanced approach at the plate should keep him moving pretty quickly through the system despite being just 19 years old until the middle of July. Ultimately, he’s a number two or three hitter in a lineup while playing very good defense in center or right field.
The other notable names here: Casey Mize , MacKenzie Gore , Adley Rutschman, Brendan McKay , Cristian Pache have all been written up before.
Prospects 31-60
Alec Bohm, 3B PHI – When the Phillies drafted Bohm at number three overall in the 2018 draft out of Wichita State as they believed he was the best college hitter in last year’s draft. He has started to prove that faith in him to be true this year. Bohm has gone through three levels this year and is now at Double-A Reading with a combined slash line of .327/.401/.521 with eight home runs, 41 runs, 40 RBI, and four steals in 67 games. Bohm has also walked nearly as much as striking out at 41:33 K:BB ratio. He’s your prototypical third base prospect in size and skill set at 6’5” and 225 lbs. and is an average-power guy with very little speed and a strong fielding arm. Philadelphia is committed to keeping him at third base, and with Rhys Hoskins at first base long-term, why wouldn’t they keep Bohm at third to replace Maikel Franco in a year or two. He should finish out the year in Double-A and then do Triple-A in 2020.
Nolan Jones, 3B CLE – Jones was a second-round selection of the Indians in 2016. He debuted with a so-so season but in short-season ball, in 2017 he started to turn it on and that’s kept going ever since and now he’s slashing .300/.449/.432 in 68 games at High-A Lynchburg with six home runs, 43 runs, 36 RBI, and five steals. The reason the OBP is so much higher than his average is due to the 58 walks in that span compared to his 67 strikeouts. Jones is a bit lanky at 6’4” and 185 lbs. but that doesn’t particularly matter that much at third base, and perhaps gives him an advantage in the swing to give him some whip to the end of his swing adding to his power upside. He doesn’t have much speed but as a power-average third baseman who can hit in the middle of the order, he doesn’t need the speed to be a factor in the game or for a fantasy team. Though he’s still down at High-A, he should move to Double-A shortly and be up with the club mid-2020 as the Indians need all of the offensive help they can muster in the next year or two.
Nico Hoerner, SS CHC – Hoerner was a first-round pick of the Cubs in 2018 at 24th overall as a college hitter they loved the profile of. His hit and run tools have shown well in the pros so far as has his plate discipline and defense though it is a very small sample size of games. In total, across Rookie, A-ball, High-A, and Double-A, Hoerner’s played 32 total games with three total homers, 20 runs, 12 RBI, and seven steals while hitting over .300 and a .450+ OBP. He’s also walked more than he’s struck out at 16:12. Again this is all based on small sample sizes and this season he’s been on the 7-day IL (the only one in the minors) with a wrist injury. Hoerner is clearly more of a typical middle infielder as a guy with a great OBP and AVG going forward and speed to steal 15+ bags but there is little power there. Ultimately, he likely moves to second base as his defense fits better there with less range required and not as strong of an arm needed. Once he comes back from the wrist injury his timeline will be clearer, but he should be up mid-2020 at some point.
Grayson Rodriguez, RHP BAL – For a while now the Orioles have been trying to develop pitching without much luck but Rodriguez appears to be the guy to crack that nut for them. Taken out of the prep ranks, the righty has been putting on a show this year at A-ball Delmarva with a 2.21 ERA, 2.33 FIP, 12.32 K/9, 2.37 BB/9, 35.3-percent K-rate, 0.86 WHIP, and .169 BAA in 57 innings over 11 starts. Rodriguez throws a mid-90s fastball with heavy, late, life on it, a mid-80s slider that is a plus pitch along with the fastball, a mid-70s curveball that has nice shape and depth, and a change of pace changeup that keeps hitters off balance and is still developing. The 19-year-old righty has a lot of progressing left to do in his pro career, but he is certainly off to a great start early in the pro career. He profiles as the next bona fide ace of Baltimore in two and half years.
Heliot Ramos , OF SF – Prior to the 2018 draft, Ramos was the Giants top prospect and he was their first-round pick in the 2017 draft out of the prep ranks. The outfielder will be 19 for much of the 2019 season as he doesn’t turn 20 until early September this and yet he’s still managed to make it to High-A San Jose this year. In 43 games for the High-A affiliate, Ramos is hitting .282/.372/.526 with nine home runs, 26 runs, 23 RBI, and two steals in 156 at-bats. His main tools are his plus arm and above average power and speed tools. The speed has decreased a bit as he’s begun to mature in pro ball and added weight to his 6’1” 188-pound frame. The approach at the plate leaves a bunch to be desired as he struck out 32-percent of the time in 2017, 25-percent in 2018, and up to 29.5-percent this year. The power will play in San Francisco, but the Giants do want him to show more patience in his time at the plate and take more walks (just 20 taken in 2019) while he progresses through the system. When all is said and done he should slot into right field at Oracle Park where the decrease in speed doesn’t hurt but the power and arm profile well.
The other notable names here: Drew Waters, Gavin Lux , Matt Manning , Corbin Martin , Bobby Witt Jr., J.J. Bleday, Andrew Vaughn have all been written up before.
Prospects 61-100
DL Hall, LHP BAL – There was already an Oriole pitcher on the list but Hall has made a big jump as well as he’s in the middle of his second full pro season. He was drafted in the first round of the 2017 draft out of Georgia High school ranks and this year at High-A Fredrick he’s put together a 73:38 K:BB ratio in 48.2 innings, a .218 BAA, 1.54 WHIP, and 4.25 ERA though a 3.29 FIP and he even registered a save. The lefty has a late riding life fastball that touches 96 while also have a high spin rate curveball and a very deceptive changeup that’s thrown with the same arm slot and arm speed as the fastball. Baltimore has kept the southpaw on a leash so far as he was kept under 90 pitches in every start in 2018 and they have yet to fully take the kid gloves off in 2019 to this point so far with the 48.2 innings over 12 starts. Going forward, the Orioles well develop Hall as the future number two starter that he has the upside to be, it just may take two more years to get there.
Cole Winn, RHP TEX – If there’s a team besides the Orioles who is desperate for developing starting pitching, it’s the Rangers and they attacked that need by taking Winn in the first-round of the 2018 draft out of the California prep ranks. Coming out he had two plus pitches in a 95-98 fastball with arm side run and a 12-to-6 curveball that absolutely falls off the table. Since then he’s polished a plus slider as well that sits in the mid-80s with tight break and has developed his fading changeup into an above-average pitch at times. He has a repeatable, clean delivery and knows how to use his 6’2” frame to generate good downhill plane and run on his pitches already at just 19 years old until November this year. He’s been touched up at A-ball Hickory this year in 21.1 innings with a 7.59 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, and a 22:15 K:BB ratio though he does have a 4.96 FIP and 4.69 xFIP. The Rangers will take their time to develop him and make sure he appropriately dominates at each level but he is the future ace of the Texas rotation in three years.
Logan Gilbert, RHP SEA – Gilbert was taken in the first-round by the Mariners in the 2018 draft out of Stetson University, alma mater of Corey Kluber and Jacob deGrom , at 14th overall. When fully healthy, he pitched through a bout of mono in 2018, his fastball sits at 97 mph with great life and a high spin rate that flashes as a 70-grade pitch, his slider and curveball are two distinct pitches with different speeds and bite, and his changeup is effective especially against lefties. In 2019, jumping from A-ball to High-A Modesto, Gilbert has a 91:14 K:BB ratio in 70 innings with a 2.06 ERA, .210 BAA, and a 0.96 WHIP. Gilbert has the farm and durability to be a future ace at 6’6” and 225 lbs. and uses that frame to get on top of hitters quickly. Expect the Mariners to the 22-year-old fairly quickly through their system now that he’s fully over the mono and showing why he was a first-round pick.
Ryan Rolison, RHP COL – Rolison is the epitome of a feel and crafty lefty who Colorado made their first-round pick of the 2018 draft out of Ole Miss at 22 overall. His fastball sits 91-93 mph but has plus command and control along with it while his Curveball is the best pitch at this point and one that he can hit each quadrant with. The slider and changeup are also average or slightly better and the slider can morph into a cutter at times. He relies on his ability to pitch to early contact and pitching IQ for his stuff to play up at 6’2” and 195 lbs. In 2019, over 76 innings split between A-ball and High-A Lancaster, he’s posted a 3.43 ERA and an 82:20 K:BB ratio. Given his quality of stuff, his pitching feel, and Colorado’s need for pitching, he should move quickly through the system before becoming a mid-rotation starter at best for the Rockies in a year and a half.
Daniel Lynch, RHP KC – Kansas City had three first-round picks in last year’s draft and Lynch was the last of those three as the Royals focused on college pitching getting Brady Singer , Jackson Kowar, and Lynch in that round. After pitching 140 innings between his Junior year at Virginia and the beginning of the pro career last year, he’s off to a good start again in 2019 at High-A Wilmington with a 3.09 ERA, 2.89 FIP, 52:15 K:BB ratio and 1.34 WHIP in 55.1 innings before landing on the seven-day IL. The southpaw can hit 97 mph with the fastball and sits 94-95 mph to make it a plus pitch, he also mixes in a plus slider, deceptive changeup and an average curveball that misses bats nicely. The 6’6” 190-pound lefty uses his three-quarters delivery to add deception and movement to his pitches and he can get in on right-handed hitters better than most young lefties. Him being a polished college lefty gives him the potential fast track through the Royals’ system and being in the rotation in 2021.