It does not take rocket science to understand a hitter such as Aaron Judge hits a baseball with great ferocity. But, as analytics continue to evolve, terms such as exit velocity continue to force their way into data banks and in mainstream media. If one does not understand exit velocity, here’s a primer.

Starting with a definition, according to Statcast, exit velocity measures the speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact. It’s tracked for all batted ball events (BBE) including outs, hits and errors.

For hitters, a high exit velocity, ideally at 95 MPH or higher, tends to yield positive results. Of course, former players can attest some of their best batted balls do not translate to hits when their an “at ‘em” ball, but the higher the exit velocity, the better chance for a positive result. Especially when elevated at the right launch angles.

Not only does exit velocity identify players with the ability to make hard contact, it can be used to discern if a player’s due for positive migration to the mean when a player does not achieve a slugging percentage in direct correlation with their expected numbers. Later, some hitters who underachieved in terms of their slugging rates last year, along with being able to produce higher exit velocities, could be targets due to a reduced price point in drafts and auctions.

Not only can exit velocity help highlight players of interest, but it can be used as a part of a process which includes contact, on-base ability and other factors, with each one playing a part in the overall evaluation before buying into a player. In order to illustrate this, a look at the leaders from the last three season with notes of interest will be explored. There will be names among the leaders which give us pause, and some players provided a glimpse of upside which went overlooked. It’s an imperfect science, but as Richard Gregory quoted to us, “Intelligence is the art of being able to guess correctly.”

So using the data readily available on Baseball Savant, here’s a chart highlighting the top 15 batters in terms of the highest exit velocities on fly balls and line drives:

Parceling out some of the sample sizes, there’s not many surprises on this list. Joey Gallo continues to be a “Statcast Hero” with prodigious power but a low batting average. He can be targeted in drafts as long as savvy owners cushion their roster with two hitters with the propensity to hit at or above three hundred. Injury concerns surround Ryan Zimmerman and Shohei Ohtani but both could offer upside in terms of power when in the lineup.

While many chase upside and pitching in drafts this year, getting players like Matt Olson or Gary Sánchez at reduced prices could create power upside. Every year Khris Davis gets selected far above Nelson Cruz in fantasy, perhaps due to the utility bias, but Cruz comes close to matching his production at a discount.

When thinking of San Diego, few focus on Hunter Renfroe , but he caught fire hitting 12 home runs in 33 games from August 2nd on, the third-most in the majors in this time frame. If Renfroe can carry over the gains, and get enough playing time, he could hit 30 or more home runs this year.

Different sites use different parameters for hard hit percentage, but on Baseball Savant, it’s considered to be any batted ball event with an exit velocity of 95 MPH or higher. After sorting the list, here’s the hitters most likely by percentage to produce such events:

Even in an injury shortened season, Aaron Judge could lead the majors in home runs this season. His size and easy power to all fields, along with the adjustments he’s made in the majors make him a worthy target. But he falls into the second round in many 12-team drafts due to the spike in pitching average draft position. Feel free to reach on a hitter primed to hit 40 or more home runs in a stacked lineup. Speaking of which, one can take prop bets on who leads the Yankees in home runs. Giancarlo Stanton played through a hamstring injury last year with Judge sidelined, and still produced.

Veterans do not create much buzz in draft room chats, but Ryan Braun and Kendrys Morales could be on winning teams in fantasy this year. Just do not await applause when taking them. It’s so difficult to trust Tommy Pham , but he appears on these charts year and year out. If he ever puts together a full season, he could reach 25 home runs and 25 stolen bases. Betting on it does prove risky.

In an effort to deviate from last year’s focus in the column, if a hitter produces a high exit velocity on fly balls and line drives, he’s likely to hit more home runs. Plus, a high percentage of hard hits will only reinforce it. This last list illustrates the batters with the top expected slugging rates. Again, mining for positive migration to the mean and some names on here could surprise:

There’s a balance of younger players on the rise along with savvy veterans. Many will be wary of investing in Max Muncy , but if he imitates the Justin Turner rise to fantasy relevance, he’s interesting. One particular player, Anthony Rendón , could be primed for a career year. He could hit third for the Nationals, his power metrics align, and he will be entering free agency at the end of the year. Target him when possible.

Not only do the above players make intriguing targets, here’s some batters with the lowest slugging percentages last year compared to their expected ones.

  • Kendrys Morales - .438 slugging, .520 xSLG (.082 difference) - Morales proves to be an accumulator in fantasy, but he averaged a home run every 19.67 at-bats last year, every 19.89 in 2017 and one every 18.6 in 2016. He increased his walk percentage last season and hard hit rates while keeping his discipline metrics in line. Plus, he’s basically free in drafts.
  • Kole Calhoun - .369 slugging, .448 xSLG (.079 difference) - From July to August, Calhoun rated as one of the hottest hitters in baseball then cratered in average in September. But, in the second half, he hit 10 home runs in 234 at-bats with a robust 52.3 hard hit percentage and a .192 isolated average.
  • Jay Bruce - .370 slugging, .438 xSLG (.068 difference) - In 2016 and 2017 Bruce hit a combined 69 home runs with a .252/.316/.507 slash line. He lost time to injury last year and seems healthy this spring. Add in first base eligibility as a sweetener for those in deeper formats.
  • Marcell Ozuna - .430 slugging, .491 xSLG (.058 difference) - If his shoulder is healthy, Ozuna’s one year removed from 37 home runs and 124 RBI, about to hit in the heart of a deep Cardinals lineup and in line for a rebound.
  • Gary Sánchez - .406 slugging, .461 xSLG (.055 difference) - Just erase last year from the memory banks and focus on the fact Sanchez has yet to produce an isolated power below .220 with the Yankees and he launched 33 home runs in 2017. He’s not a sleeper, but potentially a steal in average draft position.
  • Joey Votto - .419 slugging, .472 xSLG (.053 difference) - One of the smartest hitters in baseball, Votto did not generate home runs last year but could return to a more palatable level of 22 home runs this year with a boost in counting statistics with an improved lineup.
  • Lewis Brinson - .338 slugging, .391 xSLG (.053 difference) - While most fawn over the Byron Buxton spring, they overlook Brinson’s. This could be the sneakiest 20 home runs and 10 stolen bases in drafts this year. His average will be a work in progress, but as a reserve with upside, yes please.
  • Jackie Bradley Jr. - .403 slugging, .455 xSLG (.052 difference) - So, Bradley Jr. changed his swing, increased his launch angle and surged in the second half with a .269/.340/.487 slash line. He also recorded a .218 isolated power with a 13.2 home run per fly ball percentage and 44.4 hard hit rate in this time frame. He could be a very quiet 20 home run and 20 stolen base candidate.
  • Nelson Cruz - .509 slugging, .558 xSLG (.049 difference) - Let others chase Khris Davis in the third round, get a solid infield bat or strong pitcher, then take Cruz in the seventh. Cruz could hit 35-plus home runs with an average above Krush Davis’ at a steep discount.
  • Matt Olson - .453 slugging, .492 xSLG (.039 difference) - If a player who has yet to hit 40 runs breaks through to do so, Olson should be a leading candidate. Especially if he carries over the gains against left-handed pitching from last year.
  • Robinson Canó - .471 slugging, .500 xSLG (.029 difference) - Another boring old veteran. Cano lost time to a suspension but returned with a .180 isolated power over his last 41 games with a 39.9 hard hit rate and a .317/.363/.497 slash.

Taking a player like Joey Gallo will translate to power. With home runs in decline last year, they make more sense to target. Getting players who not only generate a high exit velocity on fly balls and line drives but do so more than 45 percent of the time. Predicting how a baseball will be wound or respond in 2019 proves too difficult to do, so hone in on the names listed in the charts to balance fantasy rosters with power upside.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com