2019 MLB Draft Guide: The Value of Catchers

The catching position has long been a thorn in the side of fantasy players. Year in and year out it is the thinnest position in the fantasy world and it has a very low number of players that will actually be beneficial to your roster. How do you go about drafting the position? There are many factors to consider when looking at the worst position in fantasy baseball. What kind of value do the top catchers provide? What strategy goes into drafting the position? Do your own league settings play a factor into the value of catchers? Let’s dive in!

Comparisons

The difference between the number one-ranked catcher (J.T. Realmuto) and the number 12-ranked catcher (Buster Posey ) in 2018 was massive. Realmuto hit 16 more home runs, had 33 more RBI, and scored 27 more runs. With the catcher position, unlike many of the other positions, the further you go down the list the gap widens at a much faster pace. With other positions there will normally be at least 12 players that you will feel comfortable drafting and starting on your roster. Also with many of the other positions, you can go deep into the 200’s of the draft and still find solid fantasy assets. At catcher, on a normal basis, there may not be more than a handful of guys you want to own and once you get past about pick 150, the catching position is a wasteland. Of course you have to own one and in many leagues two, so it can be a difficult spot to fill. This is where the value of drafting a top-tier catcher can pay dividends. Not having to worry about that position being a disaster all season is a great feeling. Top catchers can be difference makers and crush their competition at the position.

Roster Configuration and League Size

These variables can change the value of catchers drastically. In two catcher formats the value of top-tier catchers rises immensely. No one wants to get stuck with two catchers who will provide next-to-nothing for them in fantasy. Top-tier catchers play on a regular basis and will help you instead of hurting you. In two catcher formats it is wise to bump catchers up your ranks; but how much? This is where league size comes into play. Both in two catcher and one catcher leagues, league size is a factor into how important and valuable chasing an elite catcher is. The more league owners the more important grabbing a steady trustable catcher is. In a 12-team, two catcher league format, there are 24 catchers that are a part of the starting lineups. There are not 24 catchers who you want to start, there may not even be half that. Locking down an elite catcher at least allows you to only have one dud at the position. If you pair one of them with a lower-end catcher you are still getting solid productivity from the position. On the flip side of things, if you are a person who plays in a one catcher eight or 10-team league, you can also bump the elite options up your rankings. With leagues that shallow, you will be able to find plenty of good talent late in the draft at other positions, making grabbing an elite catcher a strong option.

Playing Time

Playing time is another huge factor when drafting catchers. Unlike other positions where every day players will play just about every day, there are very few catchers who actually see the lion’s share of starts. Outside of the top guys, many of the ‘starting’ catchers will be in platoons or just see regular days off frequently. Last year, 185 players had 400+ at bats, only nine of those were catchers (Salvador Pérez , J.T. Realmuto , Willson Contreras , Tucker Barnhart , Yadier Molina , Yasmani Grandal , James McCann , Jonathan Lucroy , and Yan Gomes ). Of those nine players, six of them finished in the top-10 of fantasy catcher ranks at the end of the season (Perez, Realmuto, Contreras, Molina, Grandal, and Gomes). All six are currently being drafted in the top-10 of catchers heading into the 2019 season. Playing time equates to fantasy success. The more a player plays the more chances he has to put up counting numbers. The top catchers will play more and will have a much greater impact on your team than the lower-tier catchers will.

Who to target?

J.T. Realmuto (51.42) – Realmuto is an obvious target, given his number one finish at the position last year, but even going into his Age-28 season there is strong reason to believe he will have his best year in 2019. His Home/Road splits with Miami were atrocious as he hit just eight of his 21 home runs at home and hit at a 14 points lower clip. His OPS was also nearly 100 points lower at home. Being moved to the Phillies gives him a massive home park upgrade as the Phillies park ranked 12th in runs and fourth in home runs last season compared to the Marlins 29th and 30th ranks, respectively. He will also be a part of a much stronger lineup this season which should give him boosts in the runs and RBI departments. His price is higher than ever, but worth it.

Danny Jansen (208.95) – Who doesn’t love rookies?! Jansen will be just that this year and is plugged in as the Blue Jays starting catcher. Last season with the Jays he accumulated 81 at bats (not enough to lose his rookie eligibility) and hit at a .247 clip with three home runs. He doesn’t have big-time power and he probably isn’t going to hit over .275, but he should be a solid option this season in fantasy despite that. He will probably hit around 10-to-13 home runs without killing your batting average and given his draft price tag he is someone worth taking a shot on. It also doesn’t hurt that he plays in a division built for hitting.

Mike Zunino  (240.27) – We are going right back to the well with Zunino this year. He was a disappointment last season with his .201 batting average and 44 RBI, but he still swatted 20 home runs. Let’s not forget that in 2017 he hit 25 home runs and finished with a .251 average. At this point, we know who he is, and that is a low average slugger. He was traded from the Mariners to the Rays this offseason and that is a positive park shift for him, both for his home stadium and for teams in his division. The Mariners home field ranked 27th in runs, compared to the Rays 23rd rank. The Rangers, Astros, Angels, and Athletics parks ranked first, 17th, 19th, and 28th in runs respectively. His new division homes the Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, and Blue Jays, whose parks ranked sixth, ninth, 18th, and 20th in runs last season respectively. I project a .217, 24 home run, 58 RBI campaign for Zunino.

Grayson Greiner (570.82) – The incredibly deep dive here and you may be asking yourself “who??” Fair enough. He is the only worth considering in deep two catcher leagues, but there are some things in his profile that may make him worth an end of draft pick. Last season, his rookie season, he finished with a hard contact percentage of 35.8-percent and line drive percentage of 23.9-percent, both of which were higher than the numbers Gary Sánchez (35.5-percent hard contact, 14.3-percent LD) and Willson Contreras (28.9-percent hard contact, 17.2-percent LD) posted. Those numbers didn’t translate to fantasy production though, as he finished with zero home runs, 12 RBI, and a .219 batting average across 96 at bats. However, those numbers should equate to better success this season and he is heading towards a big increase in playing time this season. He is currently slated to be the Tigers starting catcher and THE BAT, ATC, Streamer, and ZiPS all project him to have at least 300 at bats this season. He is a risk-free end-of-draft selection with upside as he heads into his prime years (will be 26 this season).

Fun with Numbers

The above chart shows the top-20 ranked catchers from 2018 (in ranked order). Categories highlighted in blue would be positive contributions, while categories highlighted in red would be negative. Categories that are not highlighted would be neutral (not helping or hurting your fantasy team). These highlights are in comparison to other catchers and not every position (example: three steals for a catcher is good; of course that is not good when compared to other positions). The below figures are a quick snippet of who provided the best numbers in some of the main areas last season.

Catchers who hit at least 20 Home Runs in 2018:

1. Salvador Pérez – 27

2. Yasmani Grandal – 24

3. J.T. Realmuto – 21

4. Mike Zunino – 20

5. Yadier Molina – 20

Catchers who had at least 4 Steals in 2018:

1. Isiah Kiner-Falefa – 7

2. Blake Swihart – 6

3. Christian Vázquez – 4

4. Austin Barnes – 4

5. Yadier Molina – 4

6. Wilson Contreras – 4

Catchers who hit at least .275 in 2018 *minimum 300 At-Bats:

1. Wilson Ramos – .306

2. Buster Posey – .284

3. J.T. Realmuto – .277

The more positive attributes that a player brings to the table the better. Doing your homework on what each player can do will always be beneficial. Draft night you may miss out on some of the top guys and need options later in the draft, you can then make your decision on who to target based on your current team. Feel good about your projected home runs? Maybe targeting a guy late like Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who can provide average and some steals, is your best route. The flow of your draft and who you have drafted so far should always come into play on whom you should target next.