Although many profiles center on a range of outcomes or potential upside, it appears Yuli Gurriel represents a solid floor of batting average with reasonable counting statistics. Playing with Houston ensures he will score and drive in runs, especially in a division flush with weak rotations.
Gurriel appeared in 136 games last year with 70 runs, 13 home runs, 85 RBI, five stolen bases and a .291/.323/.428 slash line. His isolated power dipped to .138 along with his hard hit rate down by over five points. He does make contact 85 percent of the time, but his regression in power last year along with the underlying data not suggesting it will return does temper expectations.
According to Statcast, Gurriel recorded 481 batted ball events with only nine barrels all year and a launch angle of 11.6 degrees. Of more concern, Gurriel’s .361 expected slugging percentage. In order to discern his numbers, using xSTATS to cross reference the data, Gurriel finished last year with a .297/.329/.410 expected slash on their site with only 8.1 expected home runs. If this comes to fruition, Gurriel will take a hit in fantasy value.
Over his career, Gurriel’s accrued 1,196 at-bats with 152 runs, 34 home runs, 175 RBI, nine stolen bases and a .291/.323/.449 line. However, in the second half of last year, his line fell to .263/.298/.406 with seven home runs. His chase rate rose by over four points last year, perhaps in an attempt to boost his power.
In order to set Gurriel’s floor, his expected average the last two years of .300 suggests the batting average can be relied on. His 23.6 home run average resides well below his 31 actual ones in this time frame. Due to the limited data from his career, his projections will sit in the middle of 2017 and last season:
It’s rare to see three different projection modules in such agreement on a player. Due to recent trends, the power will be the toughest one to reach. Houston uses fluid lineups and player rotations, so Gurriel will get his at-bats, but if Tyler White stays hot, he could be the more worthwhile flier depending on team need. If mining for power, White will be the way to go. If crafting a roster with a Joey Gallo type or plenty of power, Gurriel makes sense to insulate batting average while accumulating a solid amount of runs and RBI.
Building a fantasy roster requires paying attention to its overall construction. Yuli Gurriel does not possess high upside, but, his safe floor of average and counting statistics other than home runs makes him viable in fantasy. For a sweetener, he’s also eligible at first and third base in 20-game minimum leagues along with second base in leagues with 10 game requirements.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
Baseball-Reference.com
BaseballSavant.com
xSTATS.org
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski
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