2019 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Yonder Alonso

In 2012, Yonder Alonso hit nine home runs, which was a career high and a mark that stayed until his 2017 campaign, when he set a new career high with 28 round-trippers. In 2018, he followed it up with 23 more big flies, and a career-high 83 RBI. Buying into the launch angle movement has certainly helped Alonso’s power numbers, better fitting the mold for what is expected of first basemen in fantasy. Additionally, he’s not a detriment to your team’s batting average, as he’s hit .266 and .250 the past two seasons, so he isn’t a liability there. Sure, he’s not necessarily helping your team in the batting average department, but if a team average of .255 does the trick, Alonso gives you a guy right on par. He’s never going to be the flashiest picks in drafts, but if you go bargain shopping at the first base position, Alonso is a fine pickup later in drafts.

You can look at the numbers and see the exponential growth in Alonso’s launch angle from pre-2017 to current, but that doesn’t do it the sweet justice a colorful graph does. Take a look for yourself, courtesy of Baseball Savant.

That growth is absurd! It declined a bit across the board in 2018, but an average launch angle of 15.5 degrees last year is still solid. Paul Goldschmidt (15.7), Trevor Story (15.7) and Nolan Arenado (15.3) all had comparable launch angles last year. Alonso won’t hit as many home runs as those guys, however, as they are above or just below an average exit velocity of 90 miles per hour and Alonso comes in under 88 miles per hour.

Alonso’s barrel rate has also seen a sizable increase, up to a career-high 10.1 percent in 2018. His batting average experienced a slight dip in 2018, but his .250 mark is far from terrible. Interestingly enough, despite pulling the ball more than ever before, and seeing more shifts, he posted a better wOBA. The past two seasons however, he was slightly worse in terms of wOBA against the shift.

Expect teams to continue to shift against Alonso in 2019, but if he continues to pull the ball more and hit it opposite field less, that .330 wOBA against the shift will surely come down this season.

Taking a look at Alonso’s spray chart over the past two years atop the layout of his new home park showcases a solid power floor for Alonso. Furthermore, it’s a slight upgrade for the veteran lefty.

However, the power upside may be capped in 2019, despite the slight upgrade in his home park’s power output. Alonso was a big time worm killer before adjusting the launch angle of his swing, and after hitting a grounder just 33.9 percent of the time in 2017, that mark jumped back up to 38.3 percent last season. His GB/FB ratio for his career is 1.21, and his mark was nearly even last season at 0.96, after being at 0.78 the year before.

Reasons for pessimism with Alonso begin and end with the chance of another increase in ground balls this season. However, the pitching staffs in his division, outside of Cleveland, are below average, so the majority of the time he’ll be facing average at best starting pitchers in the bigs. He’s locked into playing time at first base or designated hitter this season, and should see 140+ games.

Alonso’s home run ceiling this season seems to be in the 24-26 range, but he boasts a floor of 20 home runs. If you wait at the first base position, you could do worse than Alonso, seeing as he is one of just two first baseman projected to hit at least 23 home runs with 70 RBI with an average draft position outside of the top 300.

Expect the veteran first baseman to be a popular pick as a backup first baseman or potentially a starter if that particular fantasy owner went bargain shopping at first base.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com