2019 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Yoan Moncada

Yoan Moncada hit 17 home runs and 12 stolen bases last season, and reaching double-digits in both of those categories was just about the only bright spot in a horrid season for the young middle infielder. Viewed as the centerpiece in the package that sent Chris Sale packing, it’s been a slow start for Moncada in black, white and silver, hitting just 25 home runs and stealing 15 bases in 203 games with the White Sox.

What exactly has been the cause of the slow start? Well, for starters, Moncada led the league with 217 strikeouts in 2018, and his strikeout rate of 33.4 percent trailed only Baltimore’s Chris Davis (36.8%) and Joey Gallo (35.9%). All things considered, his .315 on-base percentage is pretty good for his batting average, thanks to a solid 10.3 percent walk rate. The first step to cutting down on the strikeouts is improving against off-speed pitches. Look at Moncada’s numbers since the start of 2017 against various types of pitches.

The strikeout total is simply too high, but if there is a silver lining in it all, his swing-and-miss rate actually decreased against each pitch, minus the fastball last year. The numbers are still simply too high, but the following graph, courtesy of Baseball Savant, showcases Moncada’s gradual improvement.

Furthermore, despite hitting zero home runs, due to an inflated ground ball rate, over his last 24 games, he hit .301 and his 30.1 strikeout percentage over that span was the third-lowest of any calendar month that season. Furthermore, his on-base percentage of .369 was exceptional and he continued to hit the ball hard while avoiding soft contact. While the 2018 season was underwhelming overall, he ended it on a high note and that helped drive a determined offseason.

Shortly after the season, Moncada went west and got in the lab, looking at anything and everything to unleash the potential that made him one of the best prospects in baseball. According to manager Rick Renteria adjustments were made to his grip to allow him to cover more of the plate, as well as be more forceful with pitches on the outer third. When you look at the numbers, an adjustment certainly needed to be made, as there was a stark comparison in terms of pulling the ball with authority and driving the ball to the opposite field.

If this new grip can help Moncada deliver the ball with authority, it could make him a more complete hitter by not giving the pitcher a free third of the plate with which to work. In theory, maintaining his great eye at the plate while being able to handle the outer-third of the plate should begin to cut down that immense strikeout rate. Will these changes help with breaking pitches? The verdict is still out on that one, but he’ll still see his fair share of fastballs.

With José Abreu and eventually Eloy Jimenez hitting behind Moncada in the lineup, the opposition will likely want to roll the dice on Moncada, at least early in the year, especially with Abreu, Jimenez and Alonso providing adequate pop. Furthermore, Jon Jay , likely leading off for the White Sox, is an on-base machine, and there are times when the opposition tends to veer away from breaking pitches with runners on base. The key for Moncada is more fastballs, as he does more damage with non-breaking stuff.

While Steamer projects the batting average to yet again be below .240, an improved on-base percentage, 20 home runs and 17 stolen bases would be his best season as a professional to date. Despite some underwhelming seasons thus far, the arrow is still pointing up on the 23-year-old second baseman and the supporting cast in Chicago might be better than what people think, especially with the help of some young prospects and a potential free agent signing looming in the wings.

Adjustments to his swing this fall should lead to a 20/20 season for the young second baseman.

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Statistical Credits

Fangraphs.com, BrooksBaseball.net, thebaseballcube.com, baseballsavant.mlb.com