Targeting players about to enter or are within their power peak enhances upside in fantasy rosters. One such player will be Xander Bogaerts . He sits on the precipice of his age-26 season slated to hit cleanup for baseball’s highest scoring team and best on-base percentage from last year. Bogaerts accrued 103 RBI in only 513 at-bats (an RBI every 4.98 at-bats), along with setting a career high in home runs (23), doubles (45), slugging percentage (.522) and on-base plus slugging percent (.883). He also reduced his ground ball rate by 5.6 percent while increasing his fly ball rate by 5.1 percent.
Bogaerts surged to the finish line with 20 runs, 13 doubles, a triple, seven home runs and 35 RBI over his last 41 games. But he also left a contest early in September with a sore left shoulder which might have affected his postseason performance. There’s some curious statistics under the hood regarding Bogaerts. He hit 15 of his 23 home runs in Fenway and 22 of them against right-handed pitching.
Despite missing games early in the season with a fracture in his ankle, Bogaerts still recorded his best isolated power (.234) with a 9.5 walk percentage and 17.6 percent strikeout rate on the season. Trying to discern how he will do in 2019 will ultimately determine his fantasy value in drafts.
Given his spikes in power last year, Bogaerts owns a .285/.353/.454 slash over the last three years with 283 runs, 54 home runs, 254 RBI and 36 stolen bases in 1,746 at-bats. Within this sample, his isolated power sits at .168 with an 8.7 walk percentage and 17.7 percent strikeout rate. Bogaerts pulled the ball 42.9 percent of the time with a 33.1 hard hit percentage. His plate discipline remained very stable, but it appears his power will continue to go up.
First, here’s his spray chart from last year with all of his line drives and fly balls on the season overlaid on Fenway Park:
It displays how he uses the Green Monster to fuel his success in home runs at home. However, he rarely hits the ball with power to the opposite field, unlike his teammates Mookie Betts and J.D. Martin ez. Deferring to his three-year data, here’s the same chart with all of his fly balls and line drives within this time frame:
Bogaerts can be successful without driving the ball to right field and simple regression to the mean could signal further growth in his power. Last year, Bogaerts only hit .269 against left-handed pitching with only one one home run. For his career, he owns a .305/.387/.442 slash line versus southpaws. Predicting power can be tricky, but noting Bogaerts should fare better with left-handed pitching on the mound makes sense.
Looking at his projections, there’s not much to argue except on his total home runs and stolen bases on the season:
According to Statcast, Bogaerts also set a career best in barrels (41) last season. Of his 417 batted ball events, 173 resulted in an exit velocity of 95 MPH or better (41.5 percent). His barrels tied noted power hitters Travis Shaw , Jose Martinez and Jesus Aguilar last season. Taking over as the cleanup hitter in Boston only enhances Bogaerts RBI upside. Using xSTATS, Bogaerts expected average of .286 aligns with the forecasted averages in the chart but his 24.1 expected home runs sits above his total from last year.
With health and positive migration of his numbers versus left-handed pitching, Xander Bogaerts could hit .290 or better with 25 home runs and 11 stolen bases while racking up 100 or more RBI. At his present price point, Bogaerts represents a stable skill set with a chance for a career year.
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Statistical Credits:
MLB.com, Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, xSTATS.org, THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty, ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen, Steamerprojections.com, ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborksi
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