If any major league player can replace Bartolo Colón in meme creations, it’s bound to be Willians Astudillo . He’s stocky, funny and the prototypical stocky hero baseball could need. Astudillo burst on the scene last year with the Twins appearing in 30 games with nine runs, three home runs, 21 RBI and a robust .355/.371/.516 slash line over his 93 at-bats. More amazing, his two walks against three strikeouts within them.
Astudillo recorded a 4.7 swinging strike percentage and made contact 91.7 percent of the time while with Minnesota. In 78 games in Triple-A, he walked 10 times with 14 strikeouts in 286 at-bats with 17 doubles and 12 home runs. During Astudillo’s minor league career, he’s walked (85) more times than he’s struck out (81) in over 2,000 at-bats. He’s also increased his fly ball rates in each of the last two seasons in an effort to generate more power.
Fantasy baseball not only loves an underdog, it craves players with catcher eligibility who can accrue at-bats playing less demanding positions. Astudillo’s trying to break camp with the Twins as the third catcher and utility infielder. He even played a game in center field last season. There’s no guarantee Astudillo will be a fantasy success, but he could be worth a flier.
However, his popularity in social media drives up his price in drafts. Astudillo’s market seems to be settling in, but he’s still the 14th catcher taken in 12-team NFBC drafts at pick number 255 on average. His range of 167-to-347 encapsulates the wide range of outcomes he could provide this season. As a second catcher with upside and batting average protection, Astudillo makes sense. How many at-bats he accumulates remains the determining factor to his overall valuation. He’s a perfect risk versus reward candidate.
Before delving into his projections, Astudillo fared well on xSTATS with an expected slash line of .363/.379/.531 with 3.3 expected home runs. His expected on-base average of .389 finished 10 points above his weighted on-base average during his small sample. Although Astudillo makes elite contact, he’s very aggressive. According to Statcast, Astudillo’s first pitch swing rate of 43.3 percent could raise eyebrows. Astudillo did finish with a zone contact percentage of 95.3 percent, but pitchers will stop throwing first pitch fastballs to him as time goes by.
Astudillo recorded an 87.1 MPH average exit velocity with a 12.2 degree launch angle. His xBA on Statcast of .322 and xSLG of .478 suggest his data from last year may not be a fluke. But, the at-bats? Will Astudillo get enough to be relevant this season. His projections reflect this giving prospective owners a glimpse of how he will do with such varied numbers based on playing time:
Investing in Willians Astudillo will be a leap of faith. Owners will hope he gets to the ATC projection, pray it’s not THE BAT’s and profit if he reaches the ZiPS numbers. Feeling lucky?
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Statistical Credits:
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski
https://playnfbc.shgn.com/adp/baseball