2019 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Will Smith

In the beginning of the 2018 campaign, Will Smith planted his flag as the team’s undisputed closer. He was absolutely dominant but as the season wore on, his dominance diminished, and his grip on the closer role had loosened mightily. It left enough in Bruce Bochy’s mind that the team wasn’t comfortable announcing him as the closer entering camp, meaning Smith is competing with Mark Melancon and Sam Dyson for the closing gig. In professional baseball, money talks, and Melancon is getting the money, and a lot of it to be frank. However, he’s been a huge bust since coming to the west coast. Even though Melancon has said he is “fully healthy,” Smith should be the closer for the San Francisco Giants and drafted as such.

The notion that spring training stats don’t matter isn’t a generalization that applies to everyone. For proven stars locked in roles, sure, the stats don’t matter, and to some pitchers, it’s more about the movement on pitches and usage rather than the spring statistics. However, when you’re battling for a spot, particularly a high-leverage role like the closing gig, these stats do matter, because you can win a spot in the spring. In the spring, at least leading up until a week before the regular season, Smith has looked the part of the team’s ninth inning guy.

Sure, Dyson has a few more strikeouts, but Smith’s ratio is better, and those zero walks are key. Especially as a closer, when the other team is selling out to score runs, doing unnecessary damage to yourself is detrimental to future success and while one can get away with it here and there, in the long run, you get burned. Everyone knows the old adage, and it rings true for closers with excessive command issues; If you play too close to the fire, you’ll eventually get burned. Look at the last two years for Dyson. In 2017, his walk rate was 4.94 BB/9 and his ERA was 5.63, but when his walk rate dropped to 2.56 last season, his ERA was a respectable 2.69. After dealing with walk issues himself throughout most his career, Smith’s BB/9 of 2.55 was the second-best mark of his career, highlighted by a 2.15 BB/9 mark in the first half of the season.

It was a tale of two “halves” for Smith in 2018, highlighted by a strong first 29.1 innings, and lowlighted by a less impressive final 23.2 innings of work.

Smith was really good in the first half of 2018, and while his FIP indicates that he was a bit lucky, he’s certainly not the pitcher he was in the second half. He’s a big southpaw that can get guys out and while he’s better against lefties, righties only posted a .202/.285/.298 slash against him last season.

Despite not being a guy with supreme fastball velocity, his strikeout percentage in 2018 was in the 95^th percentile, while his xwOBA, xBA and xSLG were in the 97^th percentile or better. That is excellent. The K/9 could come down a bit in 2019, but even so, he’d still be above average in that department, and well-above league average. One of the main concerns with Smith in that closer role is that he tends to get fly ball happy, and at the end of games, one big fly can rock the boat and cost the team a game. His ground ball rate rebounded closer to his career norm after a career low 35.4 percent back in 2016, but his 41.7 percent ground ball rate last year is still rather low. The spacious confines of his home park help keep the home run rate down, but from the chart below, you’ll see that he’s consistently above league average in terms of a heightened launch angle.

As mentioned earlier, money talks, and below, you’ll see that Smith isn’t making closer money, which could push Bochy’s hand into giving Melancon a shot at the role to open the year. For fantasy owners, it stinks, because Melancon isn’t the guy he was back in Pittsburgh. Take a look at the 2019 salaries for the three main competitors in the San Francisco bullpen, per Spotrac.

However, the same reason it could potentially hurt Smith, is also one of the biggest positives for him, in that if the Giants make him the closer, and he is effective yet again, at just 29 years old on a friendly contract, he is incredibly appealing for teams looking to boost the bullpen come closer to the trade deadline. If the Giants are smart, they let Smith run with the job in the beginning of the season, and then either keep him in that role and make him the closer going forward, or receive some prospects for him when the middle of July rolls around.

Simply put, Smith is the best fit to close for the Giants. At his price in drafts, his potential for saves and high strikeout floor make him a popular second or third relief option.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
spotrac.com/mlb