2019 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Wil Myers

Wil Myers is a polarizing fantasy asset that has registered two seasons in the past three years with at least 50 combined home runs and stolen bases, going 28/28 in 2016 and 30/20 in 2017. In 2018, he was on pace for another productive season in multiple categories, but multiple stints on the disabled list limited him to just 83 games for the Padres. It was a rash of different injuries that sent him to the shelf, including a right arm nerve irritation, left oblique strain and foot contusion/bone bruise. Injuries have popped up at bad times for Myers in the past, but when he played 155+ games in 2016 and 2017, he was an incredibly valuable fantasy asset.

Myers will transition back to more of an outfield role this year with the Padres, but he should carry his corner infield eligibility into this season, and that lineup versatility is an added bonus to drafting the 28-year-old. The lessened defensive burden should help a bit in 2019, but Myers will continue to hit the ball hard all over the field. Since the start of 2016, only 29 other hitters have a higher hard-hit percentage than Myers. Since the start of 2017, Myers has the eighth-highest hard-hit percentage among batters with at least 950 plate appearances across those two seasons. Furthermore, per Statcast metrics over at Baseball Savant, Myers’ 2018 numbers ranked quite well across the league. See for yourself:

Myers’ strikeout rate continues to be a bit of a problem, coming in at roughly 25 percent for his career, but that mark has hovered closer to 28 percent over the past two years. In 2018 specifically, he chased out of the zone more frequently, but his SwStr% remained consistent at 10.6 percent. If he’s going to swing and miss, so be it, but chasing out of the zone more frequently in 2018 explains why his walk rate came in at a career-low 8.7 percent last season. Due to his inefficiencies in taking ball four and higher propensity to reach the third strike, Myers won’t be a huge asset in the batting average department, but a .250-ish clip certainly won’t hurt your fantasy team. If you play in a league that values OBP instead of batting average, Myers may actually slip a few spots in the ranking, as his career OBP is just .328, lower than the likes of Angel Pagan, Elvis Andrus and Austin Jackson. If only he were to get on base just a bit more often…

If Myers can stay healthy, and the team’s tendencies don’t change drastically, Myers could come very close to 30 stolen bases this season. Of course, it’s far from a guarantee, as an injury always seems to come about at the worst time. Why could he reach 30 stolen bases this season when he has topped 20 just twice (2016, 2017) in his six-year career? Two main reasons: 1) Myers has been incredibly efficient on the base paths in his career and 2) the Padres have consistently been among the league’s most “ready-to-run” teams.

For his career, Myers has an 81 percent success rate on stolen base attempts, and over the last three seasons, Myers is 61-for-74, which is an 82.4 percent success rate. Secondly, since Myers joined the Padres in 2015, here is where San Diego has ranked in stolen base attempts per game.

Myers has plenty of power to beat the notoriously unfriendly confines of Petco Park, so that shouldn’t weigh heavily into your decision-making process. Furthermore, the Padres may not be stacked with talent, but Myers’ supporting cast could be getting a boost or two with a potential free agent signing and the possible appearance of uber-prospect Fernando Tatis Jr.

Steamer projects an increased walk rate, a small decline in his strikeout rate while hitting 22 home runs and swiping 16 bags. The numbers seem a bit conservative for the outfielder, but with his injury history, some skepticism to the counting stats is justifiable. However, at his current ADP (114.84 per NFBC at time of writing), a potential 20/20 or even 25/25 season out of your eighth-round draft pick is incredibly enticing.

Myers’ dual-eligibility is appealing, and an ill-timed injury is the only road block to a 20/20 campaign in 2019.

Statistical Credits
Fangraphs.com
BrooksBaseball.net
thebaseballcube.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com