In a season cut short due to an 80-game suspension for performance enhancing drugs, it’s easy to overlook Welington Castillo . He started well with six home runs and 15 RBI over his first 32 games with a .267/.309/.466 slash line before his transgression. He appeared in 17 games near the end of the season but without any counting statistics.

However, Castillo is one year removed from 20 home runs with the Orioles in 2017 and his moving to another hitter friendly ballpark should ensure a rebound in the year ahead. While Castillo does not hit an overwhelming amount of fly balls, he owns a stable skill set in regards to his discipline and batted ball profile which eases worries about future production.

Over the last three years, Castillo has appeared in 261 games with 102 runs, 40 home runs, 138 RBI, three stolen bases and a .270/.319/.443 line. Castillo racked up a .173 isolated power with the second-best hard-hit percentage among all catcher with at least 1,000 plate appearances and the second highest line drive percentage. He also ranks seventh in home run per fly ball percentage.

Here’s a look at all of his line drives and fly balls from the last three seasons with Guaranteed Rate Field:

Not only can Castillo hit home runs, but he does use all fields as well. Shifting to his Statcast data, Castillo’s breakout in 2017 aligned with his numbers last season even though it happened to be cut short:

Small sample size aside, Castillo seemed primed to repeat on his 2017 statistics through his first 32 games prior to the suspension. Note he sustained a higher average exit velocity and launch angle gain he exhibited in 2017. Even more enticing, Castillo’s slated to hit fifth when in the lineup by Roster Resource.

If this translates, the White Sox fifth batters last year scored 96 runs with 91 RBI as a group. Knowing catchers accrue fewer at-bats given the demands of the position, it’s still intriguing if he hits in the heart of the lineup on an improved team. Here is Castillo’s projections across three sites:

Castillo averages a home run every 23.42 at-bats the last three years, so if he reaches 375 at-bats, he could launch at least 16 home runs. Using this as a guide, White Sox fifth batters averaged .156 runs per at-bat along with .148 RBI. Again, applying this to 375 at-bats, Castillo could accrue 59 runs with 55 RBI. Any increase in his counting statistics enhances value.

It’s well within the range of outcomes that Welington Castillo will be a top-10 player at his position. Last year’s disappointment along with owners chasing upside continue to depress his draft price. Remember the potential for him to hit in an optimal lineup position for a catcher, his 2017 surge and a chance for profit based upon investment to target “Beef” in drafts this year. Catchers like this will be tough to find in drafts, but with health, Castillo’s consistent past should yield a bounce back in 2019.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty, ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen, Steamerprojections.com