.jpg)
Due to trends such as recency bias and trying to find the next breakout pitcher, Walker Buehler will either be very popular or too expensive in drafts this year. Discerning if he’s worth the investment will be the task of this profile. Buehler won eight games in 23 starts last season with a 2.62 ERA, 3.21 xFIP, 0.96 WHIP and a 151:37 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 137.1 innings. He also recorded a 21.1 strikeouts-minus-walks percentage generating an 11-percent swinging strike rate including a 32.1 chase percentage on pitches outside the strike zone. However, Buehler did yield a 77.2 contact percentage but mitigated this with a 50-percent ground ball rate.
Concerns will arise in how many innings the Dodgers will allow Buehler to throw along with how his arsenal continues to develop. Between his time in the minors and with Los Angeles, Buehler finished with 153 innings. Knowing he will not be allowed to push towards 200 innings, projecting him for 175 seems practical.
Trying to predict how his repertoire will evolve can be exciting. Buehler reached a new level in the second half with a 2.03 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 92:24 strikeout-to-walk rate and a .164/.242/.266 slash against in 80 innings. Over his last six starts leading up to the postseason, Buehler recorded a 1.62 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and 30.6 strikeouts-minus-walks percentage. When looking at his pitch usage compared to 2017, Buehler added a changeup and cutter last season with mixed results. But if he refines them, Buehler could reach a new level. It’s intriguing to see he’s in the same draft range as Jacob deGrom last year. Keep this tidbit in mind.
As for Buehler, here’s a chart courtesy of Brooks Baseball with his pitches and results for the season compared to his breakout in the second half:
One of the remarkable facts about Buehler lies within the effectiveness of his four-seam fastball. He deploys it just over 40 percent of the time, but generates near elite swinging strike percentages with the pitch. Since he just introduced the change and the cutter, his numbers above do not jump off the page. However, keep in mind he’s a work in progress. Shifting to Statcast, here’s a look at his pitches using plot maps to show where they’re thrown:
Working up and down in the zone with his pitches, Buehler’s four seamer gets swings and misses above the strike zone, which fuels its success.
Staying with Statcast, Buehler finished sixth among all starting pitchers with a 2.8 barrels per plate appearance percentage. Jacob deGrom finished second. From a hitter’s standpoint, Buehler’s pitches with movement present problems. Against the Red Sox in the World Series, Buehler limited them to two hits over seven innings with seven strikeouts. Here’s a 3-D look at his pitches in this sample:
Buehler’s seven shutout innings with zero walks against one of baseball’s most patient team’s should raise eyebrows. Especially on the game’s biggest stage. Statcast also includes data on exit velocity allowed, launch angle induced and his ability to control the strike zone. Note his impressive strikeouts-minus-walk rates and whiff per swing percentages by pitch:
One of the highlighted areas, Buehler’s negative launch angle with his curve. It’s a devastating pitch and if he increases the usage of it in 2019, strong results should ensue.
Invariably, profiles lead to projections. Starting with Steamer, he’s projected for 12 wins against eight losses with 186 strikeouts, 54 walks, a 3.27 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 28 starts in 163 innings. This provides a strong baseline from which to work with. However, if Buehler works on his changeup this spring and further refinement on how he uses his arsenal, he could excel.
Baseball’s a game of regressing to the mean, so it’s worth noting Buehler’s xFIP of 3.21 along with his 3.35 kwFIP from xSTATS as well. If Buehler can keep his ERA between 2.75-to-3.21, he’s still a stud. Especially if his strikeout percentage grows, which it can. Steamer projects him with its 22nd highest total in strikeouts despite the limited innings.
His average draft position does provide some risk upon return, especially if he only reaches 170 innings. But, so far in 2019, Buehler’s ADP surpassed his teammate, Clayton Kershaw , moving up to the 12th starting pitcher off the board in NFBC drafts. Buehler’s range of 24-to-45 aligns with deGrom’s from last year. If he uses deGrom’s path, Buehler’s breakout will translate into a strong 2019 season. Versus Buehler’s Steamer projection, you can take the over on wins and strikeouts but adjust for his ERA to sit in the range above with a WHIP in the low one’s (1.00-to-1.09).
Suffice it to say, Buehler’s profile, still provides upside in spite of the risk.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, BrooksBaseball.net, xSTATS.org