A gruesome elbow injury forced Victor Robles to miss most of last year and opened the door for a different Washington prospect, Juan Soto , to breakout. One year later, with Bryce Harper departed, it lines up to be Robles turn. He’s been raking this spring with a robust .340 average, .992 on-base plus slugging percentage, two home runs, 10 RBI and seven stolen bases in eight attempts across 62 plate appearances.
Robles only appeared in 40 games at Triple-A last season with 25 runs, two home runs, 10 RBI and 14 stolen bases. He slashed .278/.356/.486 but shined in his small sample in the majors with three home runs, three stolen bases, a .237 isolated power and a .288/.348/.525 line.
Between two levels in 2017, Robles flashed his upside with 10 home runs, 47 RBI and 27 stolen bases while hitting .300/.382/.493 in 430 at-bats. For his career in the minors, Robles owns a .300/.392/.457 line with 28 home runs and 129 stolen bases. His burgeoning power along with his speed contributes to his popularity this year in drafts.
Tempering his upside, Robles currently projects to hit eighth in the Nationals lineup and will need to overcome his ground ball tendencies during the season to generate more home runs. Here’s his heat map from the last two years in the minors courtesy of MLBfarm.com:
There’s a large amount of ground balls to his pull side, so using more of the field could benefit his development. As for his power, here’s Robles’ spray chart from the same sample showing only his fly balls and line drives:
It’s encouraging to see his power to right-center field and his speed will allow him to accrue extra-base hits in the majors. However, hitting eighth all year could have adverse effects on his overall value. Last year, the aggregate of Nationals eight-hole hitters recorded 564 at-bats with 63 runs, 49 RBI, six stolen bases in nine attempts and a .200/.288/.285 slash line. Due to the depth of the lineup, Robles will be able to outdistance the counting statistics, but how much will he run if the pitcher sacrifices behind him?
Fantasy owners will hope Robles moves up in the order or switches to ninth in order to promote more stolen base attempts going forward. Of course, if Adam Eaton gets hurt or misses time, Robles could move to a much better spot in the lineup if he works his way into lead-off or batting second. With this in mind, here’s a look at his projections from three different sites:
Heeding the slash lines above, there’s a chance Victor Robles will exceed his draft position, but the room for profit lies in how many stolen bases he gets along with his counting statistics from the ZiPS projection versus the other two modules. More runs, home runs and RBI could happen, but they will not be guaranteed if he’s pigeon-holed hitting eighth. There’s no denying Robles’ talent, but how he’s deployed will ultimately determine his 2019 season.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
MiLB.com
MLBfarm.com
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski
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