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When trying to discern a player’s value, giving them a mulligan in fantasy can be a mistake. However, in the case of Stephen Piscotty, his 2017 season included trying to play through injury and his Mom’s illness. This prompted his trade to Oakland to be closer to her and his family. So, personally, Piscotty’s 2017 will be viewed as an outlier in order to project his 2019 season.
Last year, Piscotty found peace by the bay setting career highs in doubles (41), home runs (27), extra-base hits (68) and RBI (88). He slashed .267/.331/.491 with 78 runs and two stolen bases in 151 games. He finished the year on a heater hitting .309 in September with eight home runs and 25 RBI in 25 games. Over his last 93 games, Piscotty went 98-for-343 (.286) with 24 home runs and 64 RBI dating back to June 13th. For a visual, first, here’s Piscotty’s spray chart of this sample:
Piscotty fared well pulling the ball, but also flashed power to center field with a few to the opposite field as well. Here’s his exit velocity chart from his last 93 games:
Note the high amount of red mixed in the chart. Piscotty sits in the middle of his power peak entering his Age-28 season with the A’s. Piscotty also launched 17 of his 27 home runs on the road. According to Statcast, Piscotty recorded 437 batted ball events last year with 42 barrels (34th most in baseball), an 88.5 MPH average exit velocity and a 13.1 degree launch angle. Piscotty’s launch angle almost mirrors his number from his 2016 campaign.
Shifting to xSTATS, Piscotty finished with 25.5 expected home runs and a .272/.335/.487 expected slash. This should factor into his projections for this year, but most systems will include his 2017 crater into them. While this seems practical, throwing it out due to all the extenuating circumstances changes how to valuate Piscotty.
In 2016, Piscotty slashed .273/.343/.457 with 22 home runs and 85 RBI. In fewer games last year, Piscotty increased his home run total, isolated power by over 30 points and his hard hit rate by 10-plus percent. Ignoring this surge would be a mistake. In fact, Piscotty should not be such a bargain in 2019, but remains one due to tempered expectations reflected in his projection sets:
Regression can be lurking for many players. Piscotty could migrate towards the mean, but once a player owns a skill, it’s his according to Ron Shandler. With this in mind, here’s Piscotty’s zone profiles of his power indicators from Statcast:
Will Piscotty graduate to the 30 home run plateau? Not sold. However, he could beat his projections simply by coming close to replicating last season. A 93 game sample should be hard to ignore, but fantasy owners might. Investing in Stephen Piscotty seems too good to be true, but given the personal struggles he’s overcome, his power growth and the watered down pitching in the American League West, he’s worth it. Talk others down at the auction table and profit on a decreased price on Piscotty for 2019.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
BaseballSavant.com
xSTATS.org
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski
MLB.com game notes
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