2019 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Starling Marte

The Pittsburgh Pirates may not have the big names that other teams in the league do, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t any potential fantasy goldmines in the Steel City. One outfielder in particular has rather high fantasy upside and appeal in 2019, given his ability to hit for power and steal bases, all while being a plus in the batting average department. Starling Marte is a talented outfielder entering his age 30 season , but he’s showed no signs of slowing down, seeing as his 47 stolen base attempts last season was the third-most of his career, trailing only 2016 (59 attempts) and 2013 (56 attempts). Pittsburgh will let him run again in 2019, and in a lineup devoid of mashers, the Pirates will likely utilize some small ball tactics to manufacture runs, headlined by Marte’s constant green light on the base paths.

Drafting Marte gives your team upside in the stolen base department, and his mid-3^rd to early fourth round ADP, at time of writing, is rather appealing. In 2018, there were three players whom hit at least 20 home runs and swiped 30 bags. Marte was one of them, but the other two were José Ramírez and Mookie Betts , both of whom are routinely being drafted within the first four picks of every fantasy baseball draft to date.

Could Marte lead all of baseball in stolen bases in 2019? Sure, he has a chance. He will have the go ahead to run at will for this Pittsburgh squad, and with two 40+ stolen base seasons (2013, 2016), the upside is certainly there. The questions surrounding Marte’s draft value in 2019 surely aren’t related to speed, because if it weren’t for a PED suspension in 2017, we are likely looking at a career stat line with at least 30 stolen bases in each of the past six seasons, considering the fact that he swiped 21 bags in just 77 games in his abbreviated 2017 campaign. Again, the concerns for Marte aren’t with his speed, but more so the power numbers and batting average.

Since 2013, here are Marte’s home run totals, as well as batting average and on-base percentage.

Marte does provide a high floor in the batting average department, hitting at least .275 in each of the past six seasons, but at his third or fourth round price, there’s a big difference in a .275 guy, or a .300+ guy that we saw in 2016. What exactly is Marte in this particular category? He’s reliable, and by the end of 2019, you can count on a floor of at least .270 for the speedy outfielder, and that’s being cautious. His expected batting average typically always comes in below his actual batting average, but his speed can make up for quite a few things.

Based on the exit velocity and launch angle of his batted balls, he’s more indicative of a hitter in the .260s, but his speed and ability to beat out a few ground balls and such is surely worth a few percentage points over the course of the season, hence, you can count on at least a .270 average from Marte in 2019. That floor could perhaps be increased a little bit if he can replicate, or come close his low 13.7 strikeout percentage in the second half of last season.

After hitting just 16 home runs across 2016 games in 2016 and 2017, Marte exploded for a career-high 20 home runs in 145 games last season. Exploded might not be the right word, however, as he hit 19 home runs back in 2015. It is worth noting that in the seasons Marte has played at least 135 games, he’s hit 12, 13, 19 and 20 home runs. So long as he isn’t slowed by an injury, his increased fly ball rate the past two seasons indicate a floor of a home run total in the low-to-mid teens, with a ceiling of about 20-22 round-trippers.

His hard-hit percentage of 33.5 percent last season was the highest of his career, and his fly ball percentage of 32.2 percent was also a career-high for the Pittsburgh outfielder. Regression to his career marks wouldn’t be a steep drop for Marte, as his hard hit percentage was about one and a half percentage points above his career average. Furthermore, the increased fly ball rate took a nice jump, sure, but this marks the third straight season in which his frequency of fly balls has increased. Trend? I think so. Don’t worry, he’ll still his fair share of ground balls, over half of the time to exact, but turning a few of these doubles in the gap to balls sailing over the fences will boost his fantasy value by seasons end.

If your league values on base percentage, Marte’s value takes a small, small hit, as he hasn’t shown a propensity throughout his career to take ball four. In the majors, he has a career walk rate of just five percent, but to his defense, it has been closer to six percent over the last two seasons. Regardless, Marte’s on-base percentage is incredibly dependent on his ability to hit for a reliable batting average.

With good health, Marte has a floor of something along the lines of a .270 batting average, 18 home runs and 30 stolen bases, en route to another productive fantasy season. However, those numbers, particularly the stolen base number, is very cautious, given his uncanny ability to fall on the injured list at the wrong time.

However, Marte’s upside is immense for a third or fourth round selection. His ceiling in 2019 pushes a .290-.300 batting average with 20-23 home runs and 40+ stolen bases.

Statistical Credits
Fangraphs.com
BrooksBaseball.net
thebaseballcube.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com