2019 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Shane Bieber

Shane Bieber made 19 starts last year and posted an 11-5 record as a member of a talented Cleveland rotation. Those 11 wins are a bit vaulted, as he was the beneficiary of above-average run support. His 4.55 ERA is incredibly deceiving, considering his FIP (3.23) and xFIP (3.30) indicate that his ERA should have been much, much lower. By this point, everyone is aware of Bieber and he’s one of the popular upside picks in many drafts, especially as everyone in the draft is hunting for that third starter to perform like a SP2, or the fourth starter to be a reliable SP3. Bieber certainly could do that, but there will be improvements that have to be made. The word is out on Bieber, and his price has continually increased through draft season. Take a look, per NFBC.

What a jump from February to March, eh? People want their share of Bieber, as they believe a breakout in 2019 is looming. It certainly can happen, but his approach may need to change slightly. In terms of his arsenal, he boasts a wicked slider that posted a 2.7 wSL mark on FanGraphs. His fastball lacks velocity and effect, leading to a -7.7 wFB rating. After his slider, his curveball (-0.5 wCB) was his next closest pitch to registering a positive mark.

Over at Baseball Savant, based on pitch movement and velocity, they identify similar players to a particular player’s skill set. For Bieber, two of the similar pitchers really stood out, and they were Kyle Gibson and Andrew Cashner . What do we know about those two right-handers? They are pitch-to-contact guys and zone fillers. Bieber throws a ton of strikes, and that’s great and all, but don’t be afraid to nibble on the corners like a mouse on a block of cheese. Based on some data around his fastball, it’s an incredibly hittable pitch, and that’s not good for the pitch that Bieber threw well over half of the time in 2018.

For a frame of reference, Bieber’s fastball metrics above are pretty comparable to Chicago’s Kyle Hendricks . Furthermore, to continue to show how hittable is fastball is, look at the numbers against Bieber’s heater last year.

Yikes. That fastball was hit HARD last season. However, to his credit, the expected batting averages against his fastball and changeup were well below the actual marks, coming in at .268 and .289 respectively. In general, Bieber let up a lot of hard contact in 2018, ranking in just the ninth percentile of that category. He’s not a Statcast darling by any means, but nibbling with that fastball, rather than pounding the strike zone could lead to better results with that pitch. Bieber already has one elite pitch (slider), and his curveball could take another step forward this season. If he takes a step forward with both his fastball and curveball, the Bieber breakout is real.

From the graph above, in terms of strikeout percentage, the curveball lost some zest as the season wore on. This furthers the notion that for Bieber to take the next step, his curveball needs to be closer to his fastball and slider in terms of strikeout percentage. If the increase here is only small, getting the curveball’s whiff rate (31.9% in 2018) to rival the slider (43.0% in 2018), that would be huge for Bieber being a SP2 that everyone desires.

Even if the improvements are small, it will reap big rewards, as the division features offenses in the bottom-third of Major League Baseball. In the projections over at FanGraphs, the American League Central has three teams (White Sox, Royals, Tigers) that rank in the bottom-third of the league in terms of projected runs scored per game, and those same three teams rank in the bottom five in projected wins. The division is weak, and with the majority of the team’s games coming against these lackluster offenses, Bieber can pad his stats in these contests.

The price on Bieber continues to rise, but there is plenty of optimism for a breakout in 2019 for the Cleveland right-hander. Cleveland has lost some of the potency on offense, but he should still get enough run support to get by, especially when he squares off against the teams mentioned in the paragraph above.

The draft capital required to land Bieber continues to increase, but he could easily outperform expectations and end the year as a top-20 starter.

Statistical Credits:
https://playnfbc.shgn.com/adp
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
thebaseballcube.com
brooksbaseball.net