Trying to discern who will get the most saves for the Phillies requires a crystal ball. Not only does the manager, Gabe Kapler, prefer to use a match-up based bullpen, he’s tough to predict. Last year, Seranthony Domínguez notched 16 saves and 16 holds with two wins during his 58 innings. He exploded onto fantasy radars after his promoting debuting in high leverage quickly. However, walks and some regression affected Dominguez in the second half.
Overall, Dominguez recorded 74 strikeouts against 22 walks with a 2.95 ERA, 3.04 xFIP and a 0.93 WHIP. He did generate ground balls over 55 percent of the time. Dominguez also mitigated hard contact with a 22.9 rate against last year. Courtesy of Statcast, here’s a look at his arsenal in a plot map:
Mixing his fastball with the slider, Dominguez produced a 32 percent strikeout rate versus a 9.5 walk percentage for a 22.5 strikeouts-minus-walks percent. He also ranked highly in terms of expected batting average on Statcast. Here’s his arsenal with indicators for the year ahead:
It remains to be seen if Dominguez will parcel out his sinker or change, but if the change improves, his three pitch mix could be devastating. Which leads to the question about his role. There’s a chance Dominguez morphs into a right-handed version of Josh Hader from last year for the Phillies. This could greatly impact his strikeouts but decrease his overall save total
Plus, will Dominguez recapture his first half dominance or at least repeat his performance from 2018 in the upcoming season? Dominguez registered a 3.19 kwFIP on xSTATS with a .246 expected on-base average. With this in mind, here’s his projections from three different sites:
Given the price to roster Seranthony Domínguez , it’s a risky portfolio based on usage by his manager and performance. Positive migration to his first half would benefit fantasy owners since there’s upside in his arsenal and ability to produce strikeouts. If Dominguez can achieve the ATC projection with a lower WHIP, there’s room for profit, but with the signing of David Robertson and a deep bullpen, it remains to be seen how he will be deployed.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
BaseballSavant.com
xSTATS.org
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
Steamerprojections.com
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski
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