With five seasons in the majors under his belt, it’s easy to overlook Rougned Odor ’s only entering his Age-25 season in 2019. It’s been a bumpy ride at times, and he cratered in 2017’s second half which carried over to the start of last year. However, Odor’s made strides in plate discipline, surged in the second half and could be on the precipice of a bounce back year in fantasy.
Odor missed time early due to a hand injury, then landed on the disabled list with a hamstring injury. He limped into the All-Star break with a paltry .239/.319/.378 slash line and only six home runs. This landed Odor on many waiver wires with owners searching for an upgrade at second base. Odor’s average can be tolerated when he’s producing counting statistics, but a low average without them makes him a marginal fantasy asset.
For those who added Odor prior to August, they benefited from his torrid month. He set a personal high with 30 RBI and became the first Texas player with at least seven home runs, 28 RBI and 20 runs in a month since Josh Hamilton in 2012. Odor’s strong finish ensured fantasy relevancy and he did slump near the end of the season, but being streaky will be a part of his game.
In an effort to gauge how his surge could affect further growth, here’s a chart of his first and second half splits in each of the last three seasons:
Odor’s second half numbers of interest lie within the highlighted areas. With a surge in hard hit percentage, he also increased his line drive percentage, lowered his swinging strike rate and increased contact. Almost a perfect storm of production. There’s been flashes of improvements, especially with his increased walk percentage for three straight halves. Within this sample, Odor’s also cut his strikeout rate.
Looking at the batted ball data, Odor hit fewer fly balls in the second half but with better results. Perhaps he suffered growing pains from the second half of 2016 through the second half of 2017 when he pulled the ball at extreme frequencies. Displaying more discipline along with using more of the field seemed to unlock Odor’s strong finish to last season.
First, here’s his heatmap from the first half in 2018:
Instead of pounding the ball into the ground, Odor increased his launch angle after the All-Star break with much better results:
Seeing the transition of the batted ball plots move to the outfield and more to center field could signal a change. It’s searching, but if Odor can carry over this approach, along with the surge in hard hit data, he becomes much more intriguing.
Analysts spend much of the off-season trying to find the next big thing in rookies or second year players. However, ignoring a post-hype player like Odor would be a mistake. He’s appeared in 444 games over the last three years with 246 runs, 82 home runs, 228 RBI, 42 stolen bases and a .242/.288/.443 slash line. Odor owns a .201 isolated power with a 5.1 walk percentage and 23.2 strikeout rate. It’s an imperfect profile, but in a terrific situation to succeed.
Odor’s present average draft position in 15-team NFBC data since the start of 2019 sits at 129th overall with a range of 112-to-152 through 32 drafts. Comparing this to his projections identifies Odor as a bargain:
Part of Odor’s surge last year occurred while hitting second in the lineup. Currently projected to hit in this spot for 2019, Odor accrued 193 at-bats there last year with 40 runs, 11 doubles, 12 home runs, 32 RBI, five stolen bases and a .264/.341/.518 slash line. Extrapolated over 550 at-bats, this equates to a 113 run, 34 home run, 105 RBI and 14 stolen base pace. Intrigued now?
There’s no guarantee Rougned Odor will attain this level of production over a season. In fact, he will not since due to his propensity to streakiness. However, if Odor reaches his THE BAT projection, he’s a top-five second baseman. He owns enough upside to make this happen. Using his last three-year average as a baseline, it’s within the realm of possibilities. Texas will not be very good this year, but Odor will be better than he’s being perceived.
Owners looking for players who can contribute across all the counting categories without being a complete drain on batting average (below .240) can take a chance on Rougned Odor . He’s improved his approach, cut his swinging strike rates and increased his walk percentages. If the second half gains stick, a 30-home run and 15-stolen base season could be a reality. And the buying price sits at an all-time low.
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Statistical Credits:
MLB.com, Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty, ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen, Steamerprojections.com, ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborksi