Buried by a suspension, playing in Seattle and being a boring veteran, Robinson Canó continues to be overlooked in average draft position in 2019. Presently, he’s the 11th second baseman taken in NFBC drafts the last two months (February and March) as the 127th player on average selected. Last year’s league batting average of .248 overall and .254 by second basemen along make Cano a value. Over the last three years, he slashed .292/.350/.490 with 230 runs, 72 home runs and 250 RBI in 1,557 at-bats. Yes, Cano enters this season 36 years old, so there’s some age regression risk, but he also will be hitting third in an improved lineup for the Mets.

Amidst his 80-game suspension which went into effect in May, Cano appeared in 80 games last year with 44 runs, 10 home runs, 50 RBI and a .303/.374/.471 slash line. He also turned in a career best hard hit percentage (41.5 percent), albeit in a smaller sample, but his average exit velocity jumped to 92.3 MPH compared to 89.3 MPH in 2017. According to Statcast, Cano’s average exit velocity ranked fifth in the majors and he finished with 23 barrels within his 265 batted ball events with a higher barrel percentage than his 39 home run season in 2016.

There’s going to be questions about his use of performance enhancing drugs, but, Cano owns a career 21.1 line drive percentage, 33.6 hard hit rate and 14.5 home run to fly ball percentage. Last year represents the first time he appeared in less than 150 games since 2006. A healthy and motivated Cano back in New York could be the type of bargain veteran rebound fantasy owners crave. Even with the checkered legacy.

For starters, here’s his batted ball data courtesy of Fangraphs from the last two years to set a baseline:

Normally, using the last three years provides more stable results, but Cano’s 2016 season will be an outlier, so honing in on the previous two years should be more telling. Cano surged in hard hit rates carrying over his spikes from the end of 2017, but this also could be a result of the enhancing drugs. But he finished strong last season as evidenced by the exit velocities cited above along with more line drives.

Over the last two years, Cano owns a .307 expected batting average with 31.9 expected home runs compared to 33 actual ones. Not too bad considering his present price point. Cano produces too many ground balls (47.9 percent last year) to hit more than 25 home runs, but it’s a realistic ceiling for 2019. For fantasy purposes, here are all of Cano’s line drives and fly balls the last three years with his new home in Citi Field as the overlay:

It will be interesting to see if Cano can increase his power hitting to left-center in New York. He probably owns a ceiling of 25 home runs, but with the ability to provide a batting average cushion to fantasy owners beyond the 10th round in most 12-team drafts allows for profit. Here are Cano’s projections from two different sites:

Robinson Canó ’s neither a shiny new toy in fantasy or a veteran coming off of a career year. However, overlooking his stable skill set, ability to hit for average and slated to hit third should enhance his appeal. Last year, the Mets cumulative totals for its third batters resulted in only 69 runs but 95 RBI with only a .265 average in 645 at-bats. If Cano can reach 575 at-bats, in an improved lineup, he could match or exceed the runs above along with knocking in 90 or more runs. Especially if he can maintain his expected average from the last two years.

It’s easy to allow recency bias or be turned off by a player being caught using performance enhancing drugs. But, if playing to win, and needing a boost in average and RBI in the 8th-to-10th round in drafts, targeting Robinson Canó makes sense. Even if it feels wrong.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

xSTATS.org

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

MLB.com