Now signed through 2021 and with the Reds adding to the rotation, Raisel Iglesias will continue to anchor the bullpen. Iglesias converted 30 of his 34 save opportunities becoming one of 11 relievers to record at least 30 saves. With so many bullpen timeshares, targeting Iglesias in drafts makes sense, especially if more chances occur with Cincinnati.
Iglesias did miss some time with a left biceps strain, but still logged 72 innings with 80 strikeouts against 25 walks last season. His ratios remained solid with a 2.38 ERA, 4.23 FIP and 1.07 WHIP. He’s been able to outperform his FIP in each of the last three years. More concerning, Iglesias allowed a spike to a 18.8 home run per fly ball percentage and an increase of his hard hit rate yielded to 34.8 percent. Hence the eye opening FIP accompanying his ERA from last season.
However, Iglesias also turned in a career best swinging strike percentage (15.3 percent) and reduced contact allowed (68.4 percent) for the second straight season. While his fastball regressed allowing nine of his 12 home runs, Iglesias did improve with his change up as his arsenal continues to evolve. Here’s a look at his pitches from the last two years courtesy of Brooks Baseball:
Despite his fastball giving up more power and a higher batting average against, Iglesias did register more swings and misses with it. Hope lies in his increased usage of the change and its minuscule isolated power against and improved whiff per swing rate.
Transitioning to his expected statistics (xSTATS), Iglesias finished 2018 with a kwFIP of 3.58 with 9.2 expected home runs and a .298 expected on-base average. If targeting Iglesias in upcoming drafts, owners will need his home run total to migrate towards the expected number to keep his ERA below three.
During his career as a reliever, Iglesias owns a 2.42 ERA, 3.37 FIP and 1.08 WHIP over 201 innings with 228 strikeouts, a 19.1 strikeouts minus walks rate and 11.3 home run per fly ball percentage. Suffice it to say, he’s been solid as the Reds closer.
With the potential for more save chances on an improving team, Iglesias could make for an intriguing target outside the top tier in early average draft position. Optimism also lies in the Reds using him in a more traditional closer role. Iglesias recorded 14 four out or more saves in 2017, but only 10 such saves last season. In order to keep him healthy, this trend should continue for 2019, but there’s no guarantee.
Steamer currently projects Iglesias for a 3-3 record with 33 saves in 65 innings, 75:23 K:BB, 3.66 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Using his last three years as a reliever as a baseline, it seems like Steamer’s inflating his ratios too much. Simple migration to the mean with his fastball and the addition of his improved change could translate to a career year for Iglesias. Health will play a factor, but, with the Reds front office trying to build a winning team, Iglesias stands to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of an improved rotation and less innings being logged by the bullpen.
If this happens, 35 saves with a 2.50-to-2.65 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP or better could be in the offing for Iglesias with 85 strikeouts in 75 innings.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com, BrooksBaseball.net, MLB.com, xSTATS.org, SteamerProjections.com
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