Although the landscape of the Red Sox infield will be tough to predict, Rafael Devers held his own during his Age-21 season. After being promote, Devers logged 450 at-bats with 59 runs, 21 home runs, 66 RBI, five stolen bases and a .240/.298/.433 slash line. Within his numbers, Devers recorded a .193 isolated power, walked in 7.8 percent of his plate appearances and finished with a 24.7 strikeout percentage.
Devers struggles at times resulting in higher ground ball rates. Last year in Boston, his ground ball percentage of 46.2 percent still resulted in 21 home runs due to a 16.5 home run per fly ball percentage and a 34.4 hard hit rate. In the second half, Devers accrued fewer at-bats, but his home run per fly ball rate spiked in part to his ground ball lean heading above 50 percent. Getting more fly balls should translate to more power for Devers, so noting how he adjusts this spring and in the year ahead will determine his power ceiling for 2019.
When looking at his minor league charts, Devers owns the ability to drive the ball to all fields. Courtesy of MLBfarm.com, here’s his heat map from all levels of the minors over the last two years:
With this in mind, here’s Devers spray chart from the same time frame:
Noting his ability to drive the ball to left field and left-center, Devers could grow his home run totals by continuing to access the short porch in left field. Especially given his 58 percent fly ball rate when hitting to the opposite field. According to Statcast, when Devers hit fly balls and line drives last year, they resulted in a 95.3 MPH average exit velocity. Devers did record 30 barrels of his 331 batted ball events with a launch angle of 11 degrees.
But, if Devers can build on last year’s debut with more fly balls, it could result in 25 or more home runs. He will need to overcome his xSTATS of 18.3 expected home runs. However, his second half hints at burgeoning power within Devers profile. Plus:
This is also where it’s worth mentioning again that Devers, entering his third big league season, was the youngest position player in Red Sox camp.
— Alex Speier (@alexspeier) March 18, 2019
There’s no guarantee, but Devers could be primed for a breakout during his second year with Boston hitting in a robust lineup. Here’s his projections from three different sites:
Not only can Devers hit to the opposite field, but he drives the ball up the middle as well, which could help stay ahead of the shift:
Entering his Age-22 season, Rafael Devers could take a month or two to breakout, but if he reaches the ZiPS projection, he could be quite a bargain at his present price point. Hitting the ball with authority to left field, generating more hard hit fly balls to right field and staying focused hitting up the middle, Devers could breakout. In fact, his ceiling could reach 30 home runs given enough at-bats and adjustments. Pay for THE BAT’s projection, profit if Devers talent allows him to exceed it.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
BaseballSavant.com
MiLB.com
MLBfarm.com
xSTATS.org
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski
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