Representing one of baseball’s most consistent power sources over the last five years in baseball, Nelson Cruz continues to be underrated by fantasy players. In most formats, Cruz will be limited to a utility spot on the roster, but, overlooking his ability to get on base along with driving in runs reflects in his present NFBC average draft position of 125 seems like a steep bargain.
Cruz played through some soft tissue injuries last season, but still accrued 519 at-bats in 144 games with Seattle. He scored 70 runs with 37 home runs, 97 RBI, stole a base and recorded a .256/.342/.509 slash line. While Cruz maintained a strong isolated power (.252), his BABIP cratered to .264 causing his average to plummet.
Using Statcast data, Cruz defied the aging process finishing 11th in barrels per plate appearance (9.3), 15th in fly ball and line drive exit velocity (97.2 MPH). Cruz rated seventh overall in terms of hard hit percentage on the site with 205 of his 400 batted ball events resulting in an exit velocity of 95 MPH-plus (51.3 percent).
Over the last three seasons, Cruz owns a .278/.359/.537 slash with 258 runs, 119 home runs, 322 RBI and four stolen bases in 1,673 at-bats. He ranks third in home runs, fifth in RBI, seventh in isolated power (.259) and tied for 29th in on-base percentage. Beneath the numbers, Cruz averages a 39.1 fly ball rate, pulls the ball 41 percent of the time and a 39.6 hard hit percentage according to Fangraphs. Here’s a look at his power indicators in a 20-game rolling chart:
Not only will moving to Minnesota help Cruz in regards to home runs, he will also be afforded the chance to face Kansas City, the White Sox and Detroit’s pitching staffs for 19 games each. First, here’s a look all of Cruz’s home runs and fly balls over the last three years with Target Field as the backdrop:
As for the new rotations in the American League Central, here’s the three listed above with their team xFIP, home run per fly ball percentages and hard hit rates against:
- Chicago White Sox: 4.88 xFIP, 11.7 HR/FB%, 32.6 HH%
- Detroit Tigers: 4.55 xFIP, 12.9 HR/FB%, 37.8 HH%
- Kansas City Royals: 4.63 xFIP, 13 HR/FB%, 40.3 HH%
- League Average: 4.15 xFIP, 12.7 HR/FB%, 35.3 HH%
With the knowledge of how well Cruz rates in home runs and RBI over the last three years, his expected statistics (xSTATS) also support them. In fact, his expected average (.287) sits above his actual number while his expected home runs (121.2) almost align. Despite his low average last season, according to xSTATS, a .280/.363/.536 expected slash resulted for Cruz on the site.
Given his age, a career year will not be in the offing, but at his present price point, Cruz does not need to produce one. In fact, even if he reaches his Steamer projection of 146 games, 543 at-bats, 83 runs, 35 home runs, 100 RBI and a .272/.353/.513 slash, he’s a bargain. Only eight more players own a higher Steamer projection for home runs than Cruz. One year removed from a drop in home runs, getting a player outside of the top-100 who could hit 35 home runs with an average at or above .270 seems too good to be true.
However, it’s the norm for the underrated Nelson Cruz . A new park, a weaker pitching division and a solid projection should ensure he remains fantasy relevant. His age and injury risk will be offset by his average draft position making Cruz a worthy target, no pun intended.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, xSTATS.org, SteamerProjections.com
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