Although most of the sleeper consideration at his position in Minnesota focuses on teammate Willians Astudillo , Mitch Garver also turned in a sneaky productive line last year, especially in the second half. Garver appeared in 103 games with 38 runs, seven home runs, 45 RBI and a .268/.335/.414 slash line. His numbers do not jump off the page, but prove to be solid at a time when depth at the position lacks for fantasy purposes.
In the second half, Garver scored 19 runs with three home runs, 32 RBI and a .293/.340/.474 slash over 133 at-bats. He tied for seventh in runs among catchers with at least 100 plate appearances in this sample, ranked third in RBI, fourth in average, 11th in on-base percentage and third in slugging. His isolated power rose to .180 with a 6.8 walk percentage and 18.1 strikeout rate.
It will be curious to track his development this year since Garver seems off the radar. He’s only the 28th catcher taken in NFBC 12-team leagues after pick 450 overall. In two catcher formats, he’s basically a free play. Deeper formats will better appreciate his skill set from last season.
Garver generated a 22.5-percent line drive rate last year, an eight percent home run per fly percentage, pulled the ball 38.8 percent of the time and finished with a robust 40.2 hard hit rate. It will also be curious to see if Garver can start cashing in on some home runs to center and the opposite field. Like many pull hitters, he tends to put the ball on the ground when he bats, but when Garver gets lift to his pull side, good things occur:
If Garver can convert his hard-hit rates to center and the opposite field, things get more interesting. He did hit 17 home runs in only 320 at-bats at Triple-A in 2017. Thanks to MLBfarm.com, here’s Garver’s spray chart from this sample:
Any improvement in his power to center and the opposite field could enact a positive effect upon his 2019 outcome. Garver did suffer a concussion last year, so he will need to be monitored, but his strong finish could portend growth in the year ahead. He also did well in his expected statistics (xSTATSO) with an expected slash of .280/.346/.422 and 7.1 expected home runs. Garver also improved upon his launch angle last year to 12.5 degrees with a 88.8 MPH average exit velocity.
Like many catchers, Garver’s season could be decided by playing time. Minnesota values Jason Castro ’s framing and defensive abilities. This resonates in Garver’s projections, so use them as a guide with each representing a different level of playing time:
There’s a chance Garver can carry over the gains in his average from last year and exceed the ATC slash line. His counting statistics will be reliant on playing time. Mitch Garver possesses upside given his price point and batted ball data. How much he can produce will be open for debate. Invest in the ATC projection, and hope his counting numbers reach the ZiPS level.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
BaseballSavant.com
MLBfarm.com
xSTATS.org
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski
https://playnfbc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
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