When Mike Trout fell to second in a recent mock draft, it prompted the question of why would he fall from the first pick in a snake draft? Over the last two seasons, he’s missed time with a torn ligament in his left thumb (2017) and wrist inflammation last year. While this depresses his overall numbers in fantasy, Trout represents the highest floor in the first round. Although he only appeared in 140 games last year, Trout scored 101 runs with 39 home runs, 79 RBI, 24 stolen bases and a .312/.460/.628 slash line in only 471 at-bats.
Trout also recorded the lowest ground ball rate of his career in 2018 combined with his second highest fly ball percentage (45.3 percent) and a personal best 44.4 percent hard hit rate according to Fangraphs. His discipline, as if it needed to, also generated Trout’s lowest swinging strike percentage (5.8 percent) and best contact rate (84.1 percent) of his tremendous career. Trout also finished with a .316 isolated power with a 20.1 percent walk rate and 20.4 percent strikeout rate.
For some perspective, here’s Trout’s rolling game chart from the last three years during which he battled through two injuries which could impact his power:
With a discernible decline which can be attributed to the thumb injury in 2017, Trout’s hard hit rate and fly ball spike from last year could translate into a career year, which in fantasy, would be crazy to imagine. Trout’s in the midst of his prime and yet the community still does not appreciate him.
Referencing game notes on MLB.com, here’s a list of Trout’s accomplishments through his Age-26 season:
- Trout’s scored at least 100 runs in six seasons and hit at least 35 home runs in three.
- He registered 30 multi-walk games last year and leads the majors with 147 such games dating back to his debut in 2012.
- Trout ranks sixth in career extra-base hits (507) for any player by his Age-26 season.
- He’s the second American League player with seven seasons of 60-plus extra-base hits in his Age-26 year or younger.
- Only Trout and Willie Mays own three 30-home run and 20-stolen base seasons prior to their Age-27 seasons.
- Trout fell one stolen base short last year of becoming the first American League player with at least 120 walks (122), 30 home runs (39) and 25 stolen bases. Only Barry Bonds, Jeff Bagwell, Chipper Jones and Bobby Abreu accomplished this feat in their careers.
- Trout did reach at least 100 walks, 25 home runs and 20 stolen bases for the third time of his career.
Not only do Trout’s numbers jump off the page from a historical perspective, he’s a Statcast hero as well:
Trout recorded 351 batted ball events in 2018 and in spite of missing time to injury, finished seventh in baseball with 58 barrels. His 16.5 barrel percentage ranks in the top one-percent against his peers. For the second straight year, Trout also increased his launch angle. It fell to 12.9 degrees in 2016 but grew to 18.1 in 2017 and peaked at 18.5 last year. Of Trout’s batted ball events, 162 of them resulted in an exit velocity of 95 MPH-plus for a robust 46.2 hard hit percentage.
While perusing his zone profiles, an interesting tidbit emerged. Trout can hit the high fastball for average, but he’s yet to really produce power in the upper third of the strike zone. If he can marry his launch angle and square up baseballs this zone, a career year in power could result. Note his actual and expected numbers in the charts courtesy of Statcast:
When setting projections for a player of this caliber, it’s not difficult. Tempering expectations could be tough to do. Over the last three years, Trout’s appeared in 416 games with 319 runs, 101 home runs, 252 RBI, 76 stolen bases and a .312/.448/.600 slash line. He owns a .288 isolated power, 18.5 percent walk rate and 19.5 percent strikeout rate. Trout hits line drives 21.5 percent of the time with a 41.8 fly ball percentage, 22.1 home run-to-fly ball ratio, and he pulls the ball just over 40 percent of his at-bats with a 41.7 hard hit rate.
Despite his time missed, Trout ranks seventh in runs, eighth in home runs and steals but only 35th in RBI during this time frame. Comparing his numbers with the expected ones by xSTATS, Trout holds firm with an expected batting average of .307, 105.6 expected home runs and he owned an expected on-base average of .450 last year. In regards to power, he’s actually underachieved.
Like a member of Greek mythology, a weakness Trout cannot control exists in his statistics. Reports already suggest Trout will hit second. While it seems like the Angels try to build a lineup around him, did they do enough to insulate him and provide traffic at the bottom of the order for Trout to accrue more RBI?
Trout did spend time hitting second last year with 287 at-bats there in the lineup. He scored 63 runs with 23 home runs in them. Due to his high walk percentage and 30 times receiving at least two walks last year, if Trout makes 525 at-bats this year, the counting statistics from last year hitting second would extrapolate to 115 runs and 88 RBI. Keep this in mind when seeing his projection modules:
It’s not to create a wet blanket or throw shade, but Trout could be affected by his supporting cast once again. Although his projection upside in THE BAT’s numbers above could be achieved, it’s the RBI which could be too ambitious. There’s no reason to pass on Mike Trout in any draft, in fact, picking first or second proves to be advantageous in getting either Trout or Mookie Betts . For the Betts crowd, he gets a much better lineup around him and a team which creates traffic on the bases.
Mike Trout sits on the precipice of what could be a career year entering his Age-27 season. His high floor, proven track record and place in history remain firm. He’s a gold standard in fantasy but still owns a flaw which fantasy owners can overcome through the draft or auction by getting RBI insulation elsewhere. One can decide to pass on Trout, but for my taste, it’s a mistake. Here’s to him becoming the first American League player to achieve what Trout missed by a stolen base last year.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
BaseballSavant.com
xSTATS.org
MLB.com
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski
Player News
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.