Coming off a monster 2017 campaign where he hit 37 home runs with 124 RBI and a .312 batting average with the Marlins, Marcell Ozuna came to the Cardinals with high expectations in his 27-year-old season. His first season in St. Louis was far inferior to his superstar 2017 campaign, but the numbers were more in line with some of the better seasons of his career prior to his final year in Miami. However, in his 28-year-old season, there is some promise for a stat line far closer to 2017 than last year.

Despite his home run total almost cutting in half, Ozuna frequently made hard contact last season, and in fact, more often than he did in 2017. He was a Statcast darling, and with some better luck on balls in the air, his home run total could jump back into the 30s.

METRIC

PERCENTILE

Exit Velocity

91st

Hard Hit Percentage

86th

xwOBA

83rd

xBA

91st

xSLG

87th



For a frame of reference, Ozuna’s average exit velocity was ahead of the following hitters: Mike Trout , Eugenio Suárez , new teammate Paul Goldschmidt and Ronald Acuna Jr.

Matt Carpenter , Goldschmidt, Anthony Rendón and Javier Báez all had a lower hard hit percentage than Ozuna.

Why did the home run total decrease so much? I believe it can be explained by a few factors.

First and foremost, his 23.4 percent HR/FB ratio was going to be unsustainable, considering he only had two seasons with a double-digit mark in that column up until last year. His career average is heightened by that mark in 2017, but last season’s 13.9 percent HR/FB mark is below what Ozuna should be at the big-league level. Additionally, despite his launch angle actually increasing a bit last season compared to 2017, the visuals are a bit staggering.

Here is Ozuna’s launch angle representation for 2017.

And here it is 2018.

Sure, a large spike in balls driven into the ground in 2017, but there is a large quantity of those baseballs above 10 degrees, which wasn’t quite the case in 2018. These charts showcase quite a difference, despite the overall average between the two seasons being less than one degree. Yes, he obviously hit more home runs in 2017, but the full representation is more indicative of what a healthy Ozuna can be.

Also, for what it’s worth, Ozuna dealt with a shoulder issue for a good chunk of 2018. Per Statcast, Ozuna’s throwing velocity is rapidly decreasing. It’s decreased every year since 2015 and in 2018, he clocked in at just 77.9 miles per hour. In 2015, that mark was at 92.1 miles per hour. Yikes. That’s scary.

However, there is further room for optimism.

His second half was much better than the first half, as he hit .299 with 13 home runs and 39 RBI in just 58 games. His HR/FB ratio came in just under 18 percent, which is a mark he could sustain in 2019, and he traded ground balls for fly balls down the stretch run. When he returned from a stint on the disabled list, which included a cortisone shot, Ozuna was fantastic. Over the last 25 games of the season, Ozuna hit .306 with seven home runs and 19 RBI.

Popular projection systems, such as THE BAT and Steamer, project Ozuna to get back up closer to 30 home runs and 90ish RBI in his second season with the Cardinals. An entire offseason to get healthy should benefit Ozuna greatly and while he may start off slow in 2019, ride the wave and enjoy the production you get the rest of the way. He’s a bit of a slow starter, especially in terms of his power production, but as the weather warms up, so does Ozuna.

An offseason to get healthy should allow for Ozuna to produce a stat line more comparable to 2017 rather than 2018.

Statistical Credits
Fangraphs.com
BrooksBaseball.net
thebaseballcube.com
baseballsavant.mlb