2019 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Kenley Jansen

The 2018 version of Kenley Jansen wasn’t the same version we saw in previous years. Not only did he lose a career-high five games, but he blew four saves, his 38 saves were his lowest since 2015 and his ERA of 3.01 was a career high. Furthermore, his FIP indicates that his 3.01 ERA was lucky, and he was more indicative of a pitcher with an ERA closer to four. Up until 2018, Jansen never posted a HR/9 above 1.03, but last year, it was 1.63. His K/9 dipped to a career low 10.30, which is still great, but not by Jansen’s standards. His BB/9 of 2.13 is far from horrible, but considering the fact that he was 0.92 last year and sub-1.45 each of the past three years, it’s a bit porous. The velocity dipped, which might be the biggest concern moving forward with Jansen, but some late season success fuels optimism for 2019. There have been no substantial setbacks following heart surgery in November, and Jansen has reclaimed his spot amongst the top tier of closers in fantasy baseball, but is the draft capital justifiable for a veteran closer coming off his worst statistical season of his career?

The November heart surgery was worrisome to say the least, but he’s expected to be fine moving forward. Does that explain the problems from last year? It could, sure. However, the drop in velocity was magnified last season, but it’s been a trend for the dominant right-hander.

The graph above, courtesy of Baseball Savant, showcases the dip in velocity for Jansen over the past couple of years. Back in 2016, Jansen’s cutter averaged just under 94 miles per hour, and his four-seam fastball clocked in at 95.3 miles per hour. However, last season, the cutter dropped to just above 92 miles per hour and the four-seamer was just 93.7 miles per hour. The spin rate on his fastball dropped immensely, but the spin rate on the cutter has remained similar. A slight uptick in velocity in the early parts of spring training and 2019 will spark optimism for the Dodgers and Jansen’s fantasy owners.

While many will mention that it was Jansen’s worst statistical season as a professional, it was still pretty darn good, and he was really done in by two bad stretches.

His 3.01 ERA for the season is still fine, but that 4.03 FIP showcases that it could have been much worse. However, Jansen does an excellent job at limiting hard contact from the opposition, largely due to throwing the majority of his pitches with plus movement.

After those two rough stretches, he settled in just fine, and after absolutely blowing up in the month of August, he settled back in over the last 20.1 regular season innings and postseason work. His K/9 remained above 10 during that stretch, but there’s reason to believe that the K/9 will see an uptick in 2019. He may not be the 14.0 K/9 guy we became used to, but a 12.00 K/9 in 2019 is certainly in the realm of possibilities.

Yes, 2018 was Jansen’s worst year in quite some time, but the right-hander still posted a 10.30 K/9 with 38 saves in 71.2 innings of work. Yes, he didn’t quite live up to the expectations set forth by his fantasy owners, but put things into perspective for a second. Do you know how many relievers have hit each of those marks in a single season since 2013? The answer is five, excluding Jansen last season. The other relievers were Jason Motte (2012), Aroldis Chapman (2012), Corey Knebel (2017), Edwin Díaz (2018) and Blake Treinen (2018). All things considered, it was still a good year for Jansen, who is set to rebound in 2019.

Jansen offers a floor as a relief pitcher that few other guys possess. He is locked into practically all of the save opportunities on his team and even in a down year, he is able to be one of the four or five best guys at his position. While he may not bounce back to the form we saw in recent years, he’s still worthy of being one of the first three or four closers off the board in your draft, because in a league full of teams utilizing numerous closers, Jansen is locked into just about all of his team’s opportunities.

Statistical Credits
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com