Justin Verlander continues to be a force on the mound and while he continues to age, he remains as dominant as ever. One could argue that last year, his first full campaign with the Houston Astros, was his best statistical season in his career. Verlander won 16 games in 2018, while posting a 12.20 K/9, 1.56 BB/9 and a 2.52 ERA (2.78 FIP) across 214 regular season innings. He wasn’t nearly as good in the postseason for the Astros, but it’s hard to be too upset after the dominating run he went on when the team acquired him back in the latter part of the 2017 campaign.
While Verlander was one of the game’s best in Detroit, he’s taken it to another level in Houston. He’s striking out even more batters and a good defense, and offense, supporting him has certainly helped some of his ratios. Furthermore, Houston has been near the front of the pack in terms of using analytics to better their players. While his repertoire hasn’t necessarily transformed all that much, the spin rate on his pitches has increased since joining Houston.
Increasing spin rate isn’t the end all be all of becoming an elite pitcher in the game, but simple physics indicates that increased rotations per minute leads to increased movement on the baseball, which more often than not, leads to the opposition having a harder time making solid contact. I mean, hitting a round object with a cylindrical bat square is far from an easy task, especially when the ball moves as much as Verlander’s. Pitch data indicated that his slider had more horizontal movement and his curveball, a notably nasty 12-6 hammer, had more vertical depth to it. This alone was likely a big reason for the increase in swings-and-misses.
The better part about his increased swinging strike rate is that since it was across numerous pitches, the mark could be sustained, or only experience minimal regression in 2019. Say it was just one pitch that really spiked in terms of whiffs, we could see Verlander tumble a bit. However, with the increased spin and movement on his pitches, the increased whiff rates are justifiable. See for yourself below.
In 2018, Justin Verlander posted his highest SwStr% (14.5%) of his entire career.
His 71.6 percent contact rate was the lowest allowed of his career.
His O-Swing% of 34.6 percent was the second best mark of his career.
His strikeout percentage of 34.8 percent was the highest of his career, and well above his 23.9 percent career mark, all while posting a career-low walk rate of 4.4 percent.
His first pitch strike percentage was the highest of his career, and well above his career average.
He was elite in 2017 for numerous Statcast metrics, but he made significant strides in other metrics, due to the increased strikeout rate and ability to limit hard contact. In terms of xwOBA, xBA and xSLG, Verlander went from middle of the pack, to one of the league’s best. See for yourself below, courtesy of Baseball Savant.
It surely was a year of firsts for Verlander, and while he hasn’t shown much regression as he ages, even minor regression to the mean leads to a top-10 fantasy campaign for the perennial Cy Young contender.
He does such a good job at limiting his hard contact that his decreasing ground ball rate over the years and increased home run rate have had minimal impact on his overall numbers. Back in 2014, the star right-hander posted a 39.6 percent ground ball rate, but since then, that mark has decreased each year, down to a career low 29.1 percent last season. Simultaneously, last year’s 51.4 percent fly ball rate was the highest mark of his career. This can be explained by Verlander’s increased propensity and willingness to throw the fastball up in the zone. Again, even with a slightly elevated home run rate, the damage is typically minimal, so fantasy owners shouldn’t fret.
Verlander, at 36 years old, is as reliable as they come at his position, and his increased strikeout rate further cements him as a top of the rotation arm. In a league with few workhorses and 200+ inning arms, Verlander’s fantasy appeal increases. Father Time always wins out in the end, but Verlander is showing no signs of slowing down and he seems well in line for another season with 200+ innings, 15+ wins, and a strikeout rate north of 30 percent.
Statistical Credits
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
brooksbaseball.net
Player News
Willi Castro (oblique) could return to the Twins’ lineup this weekend.
Castro has been sidelined with an oblique injury since April 16th and was finally placed on the IL late last week. He has been swinging the bat right-handed and plans to swing left-handed on Tuesday. If his body responds well to that, the Twins could bring him back for this weekend’s series against Boston, which could cut into the playing time for Brooks Lee or Edouard Julien.
Royce Lewis (hamstring) will play 10 innings in a doubleheader on Tuesday and could return to Minnesota on May 6th.
Lewis will play 10 innings as the team’s designated hitter during a doubleheader for Triple-A St. Paul on Tuesday and then play a full game at third base on Wednesday, assuming Tuesday goes well. Even though that could mean Lewis returns this weekend, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes suggests “it’s likelier Lewis will play several more games over the weekend and return when the Twins open a homestand on May 6.”
Matt Wallner (hamstring) just started jogging on the treadmill on Monday.
Wallner has been out with a Grade 3 hamstring strain since April 15th. He has yet to swing a bat and will be re-evaluated by the Twins when they return home next week. We won’t have a firm timeline for Wallner’s return until he starts swinging, but it sounds like there’s a chance we don’t see him back until late May or early June.
Twins trainer Nick Paparesta said Luke Keaschall (forearm) will rest and won’t be re-evaluated “for at least a month.”
Keaschall suffered a non-displaced fracture in his right forearm, which halted his impressive MLB debut. The injury won’t require surgery, but the Twins will take time to allow it to heal on its own. “It’s probably going to be a couple of months before he’s back into playing games,” Paparesta said. When he does come back, there’s no guarantee he slots right back into the Minnesota lineup, so we may not see Keaschall back in the big leagues until the end of the summer.
Shane Bieber (elbow) is set to throw simulated games in the Arizona Complex League.
Bieber has said that he’s feeling healthy but is being deliberate in his rehab to ensure that he doesn’t come back too soon. The veteran’s target date had always been sometime around the All-Star break, so this would keep him on schedule. After Bieber throws simulated games, he would likely make a few rehab starts before returning to Cleveland. If all goes well, he could be back by the end of June.
Tony Gonsolin (back) will return from the injured list and start for the Dodgers on Wednesday against the Marlins.
Gonsolin missed the entire 2024 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and was then sidelined by a back injury in spring after just three innings. The 30-year-old had a great season in 2022 and has been a solid starter for the Dodgers over his career. His lack of strikeouts limits his fantasy value a bit, but his velocity has been up in his rehab outings, so he could be worth a stash in deeper formats while he remains in the Dodgers’ rotation.