2019 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Juan Soto

Bryce Harper who? Top prospect Victor Robles who? Despite the former being one of the more electric hitters in baseball and the latter being regarded as the team’s best prospect in recent years, its Juan Soto that is attracting all of the hype now in 2019 after a magical 2018 season. In 116 games last season, Soto slashed .292/.406/.517 and a 146 wRC+ to go along with those 22 home runs, 77 runs scored and 70 RBI. The overall stat line was excellent in and of itself, and he clearly passes the eye test, but the maturity and approach at the plate were something to herald. At just 19 years young, in the major leagues, Soto looked like a seven-year veteran in the batter’s box, never looking overmatched and confidently executing his plan of attack. His plate discipline was next level, and he carried over his excellent eye and discipline from the minors to the game’s highest stage.

Last season, of players with at least 450 plate appearances, Juan Soto had the sixth-highest walk rate, 10^th-highest wRC+ and seventh-highest wOBA. Against fastballs, Soto’s 32.1 wFB was sixth-best in the league, trailing only some of the bests, being Mookie Betts , J.D. Martin ez, José Ramírez , Mike Trout and Bryce Harper . Of players with at least a 15.0 percent walk rate, only five had a strikeout rate at or below 20 percent. Soto was one of them.

Soto’s O-Swing% of 21.9 was better than the league average (30.9%).

Soto’s SwSTR% of 7.6 percent was nearly three percentage points lower than the league average (10.7%).

The league average BB/K ratio was 0.38. Soto’s was 0.80.

It simply cannot be understated how statistically significant his 2018 was on so many different levels. The overall numbers were excellent, but the peripherals and discipline-focused stats were perhaps even more impressive. Additionally, take a look at the graph below, showcasing Soto’s numbers against each pitch, and then the following graph showcasing his swing percentages against said pitches.

As the season went on, Soto refined his approach, and simply didn’t swing that much at offspeed and breaking pitches. The swing rate on offspeed pitches was a bit higher than the breaking stuff, because a changeup can be disguised as a fastball much longer than a 12-6 curve or sweeping slider can. From the chart above, per Baseball Savant, you’ll see there is less fluctuation with the swing rates on the fastball compared to other pitches, sans the first month. What are pitchers to do? He absolutely destroys fastballs, and he just simply won’t swing as often against non-fastballs. Sure, you can throw “get-me-over” secondary stuff, but you’re going to have to come with a fastball at some point, and that is when Soto will feast.

For future power production, it would be great to see Soto eat into that 53.7 percent ground ball rate from 2018. His ground ball rate was 10^th-highest among players with at least 450 plate appearances, and was comparable to the likes of Willson Contreras (52.0%) and Lorenzo Cain (54.6%). Of the 12 players with a ground ball rate of at least 52 percent, only four players (Ian Desmond , Nomar Mazara , Trey Mancini , and Soto) had 20 or more home runs, with Mancini’s 24 round-trippers leading the way. Christian Yelich and David Peralta were able to hit 30 or more home runs with a ground ball rate north of 50 percent, so there is reason to believe that Soto could be the next guy to do it. If Soto continues to hit the ball with authority, and trade a few of those ground balls for line drives and fly balls, Soto will end the year with 30 home runs.

The question with Soto heading into 2019 is where does he go from here? Just how much better can he get? The short answer is that the sky is the limit for the 20-year-old outfielder. Here are what some popular projection systems have Soto doing in 2019:

Soto is a budding superstar and his 2019 season will have the Washington faithful forget that Bryce Harper isn’t wearing a Nationals uniform anymore. His advanced approach for his age, as well as his statistical output, make him one of the most attractive pieces in dynasty formats.

Even at just 20-years-old, Soto will cement himself as one of the best pure players in the game this season.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
THE BAT Projections Courtesy of Derek Carty
ATC Projections Courtesy of Ariel Cohen
ZiPS Projections Courtesy of Dan Szymborski