When Josh Hader burst onto the scene as a flame-throwing southpaw in their bullpen, he made good on his average draft position (ADP) beyond pick 300 last year. In fact, Hader finished as one of the top ranked relievers in fantasy due to his phenomenal season. Hader won six of his seven decisions with 12 saves, 21 holds, 143 strikeouts in only 81.1 innings, a 2.43 ERA, 2.05 xFIP and minuscule 0.81 WHIP. His ability to rack up strikeouts while protecting ratios pushed his ADP near 100 this year.
Although some view Hader with skepticism due to the inflated cost, with both Jeremy Jeffress and Corey Knebel sidelined to injury, Hader’s in line to start the year as the primary closer for Milwaukee. This could reduce his overall innings and strikeouts, but if he gets 15-to-20 saves this year, with the ratio insulation, he could be worth a top three pick at his position. Yes, I am serious.
After 2017, Hader recorded a 3.11 kwFIP on xSTATS and a 3.66 xFIP which could signal regression warnings, but he easily defeated each of them with his totals from last year in ERA. Going back to xSTATS, his kwFIP from 2018 of 1.60 comes with an expected on-base average of .227 which could mean a monster year lies in the offing.
Statcast supports this. Hader finished last year with a expected slugging of .269, expected batting average of .149 and a hard hit rate allowed of 31.8-percent. Due to his velocity and pitch placement, Hader will give up home runs, but there’s always one tragic flaw in a Shakespearean hero. For the visual crowd, first, Hader’s plot map of pitches from last season:
Hader works at the top and bottom of the strike zone to induce swinging strikes and can keep hitters off balance. Since Hader rarely uses his change-up, it’s not included in the ensuing chart with usage and outcomes:
Key on the expected rates and the huge strikeout rates. Hader’s dominance can sometimes get overlooked due to fantasy owners expecting it. His zone profiles also portend potential growth:
Regression comes for every player, but Hader’s ability to locate pitches with velocity makes him a unicorn at times. If he opens the year as the primary closer, his stock goes up when many thought it would not be possible. No pitcher will shift from a reach to a bargain, but opportunity will be the key. Here’s Hader’s adjusted projections with the injury news in the Brewers bullpen:
While this sets a nice baseline, they do not provide upside. Even if Hader repeated last year’s rates with more saves, the numbers above feel light. Hader’s been dominant in spring training and does not seem like the bottom will fall out. In fact, he will turn 25 in April and could turn in a career year. Due to all the periphery outcomes, taking Hader makes sense. Especially if the save opportunities come his way for the first month of the season. It’s silly to view relievers by saves alone, but Hader could finish as the top reliever in fantasy if given the closer role all season. He’s that good.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
BaseballSavant.com
xSTATS.org
Steamerprojections.com
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski
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