Predicting health proves to be difficult in fantasy baseball. After playing in at least 155 games every season between 2013-through-2016, Josh Donaldson ’s been riddled with injuries since. He logged just 113 games in 2017 and 52 in 2018 which is less than optimal when heading to free agency. This offseason Donaldson signed with the Braves looking for a fresh start, and to avoid the turf in Toronto. Playing at least half of his games on grass should help keep his calf healthy and going to a strong offense should allow Donaldson a return to fantasy relevance in the season ahead.

However, owners will need to track his health in the spring while his draft stock settles in. Through less than 25 NFBC drafts, Donaldson is the 15th third baseman taken with an average ADP of 111.29, but his range proves much more varied. His high pick of 74 accompanies a low selection at number 165, so if the third baseman start to fly off the board, Donaldson presents himself as a risky, but potentially profitable investment. 

Part of the hesitation to draft Donaldson can be seen in his surface statistics from last season. In 187 at-bats he scored 30 runs with eight home runs, 23 RBI, two stolen bases and a .246/.352/.449 slash line. Hope lies in his strong return in September during which he hit .280/.400/.520 with three home runs in 50 at-bats. But, the small sample size crowd will balk at it.

Over the last three years, Donaldson’s been a solid fantasy contributor when on the field with 217 runs, 78 home runs, 200 RBI, 11 stolen bases and a .273/.389/.537 line. If pared down to a 450 at-bat pace, this equates to 84 runs, 30 home runs, 76 RBI and four stolen bases. Extrapolating numbers cannot be trusted, but it does provide a baseline when valuing Donaldson. Comparing his last three year numbers in xSTATS, Donaldson does well with a .285 expected average and 75.4 expected home runs.

Here’s an illustration of all of his line drives and fly balls the last three years with Atlanta as the backdrop:

Within his three year time frame above, Donaldson owns a 15.1 walk rate, 20.1 strikeout percentage, .261 isolated power, 39.4 hard hit percentage, .389 weighted on-base average and 147 weighted runs created plus metric. Planning the demise of a just turned 33 year old third baseman seems premature. Trusting him to reach 450 at-bats however, comes with risk based on the last two seasons. 

Before delving into his projections, there’s one more aspect to consider. Pitchers continue to work up in the zone to try and combat the hitter’s adjustment to hit more fly balls. Donaldson’s thrived on these pitches as illustrated in his zone profile the last three years using his isolated power results:

Both Steamer and ZiPS project a bounceback for Donaldson with a chasm in regards to optimism about how many at-bats he will accrue:

  • Steamer Projection: 478 at-bats, 83 runs, 27 home runs, 73 RBI, four stolen bases; .257/.366/.485
  • ZiPS Projection: 397 at-bats, 69 runs, 23 home runs, 68 RBI, four stolen bases; .267/.373/.506

Each projection uses data from his last three years to try and predict his outcomes. With the knowledge Donaldson’s slated to hit second for the Braves, this also provides a window to his production. Atlanta’s second hitters last year combined for 686 at-bats with 117 runs, 24 home runs and 68 RBI. As the lineup continues to get deeper for the Braves, Donaldson could be a worthy reach in drafts or auctions this year. Especially if the league one plays in proves to be risk averse.

If Donaldson reaches 450 at-bats, he’s well worth the risk. Teams rostering him will need to create depth in the roster to absorb any time lost, but this feels like a bargain waiting to happen. Key on his reliable three year slash lines as his base and with health, 27 home runs and 70 RBI will be well within reach. This will not be for the faint of heart, but when building rosters, Donaldson’s a worthwhile gamble.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, MLB.com, BaseballSavant.com, BrooksBaseball.net