Last season was truly one to forget for Chicago first baseman José Abreu . Statistics aside, he underwent emergency groin surgery and was later hospitalized with an infection. Due to this unforeseen circumstances, Abreu was limited to a career low 128 games last season, marking the first time in his big league career he didn’t appear in at least 145 games for the White Sox. There were some rough stretches for Abreu in 2018, but dealing with these factors, and perhaps how long they actually were plaguing him could explain the down months of June and July. However, he was white hot in the month of August until he was placed on the disabled list, only to come back for the final six games games of the season and hit .125 with nearly as many hit by pitches as base hits.
Albeit a down year in 2018 for Abreu, there is plenty of optimism for the first baseman in 2019, as it seems from the surface that bad luck and untimely injuries ate into his production in 2018. With better health and luck on batted balls, Abreu can return to his usual form and be one of the more consistent and productive first baseman in fantasy and reality. Remember, up until last year’s outlier season, Abreu had hit at least .290 with 25 home runs and 100 RBI in not one, not two, not three, but four consecutive seasons! There is a buying opportunity in 2019 on Abreu, and while he may not be the flashiest name, he provides a safe floor for fantasy owners to bank on.
Abreu’s power numbers certainly took a hit last season, but some of that was simply because he didn’t get enough games, and let’s not scoff at the fact that he still managed to hit 22 round-trippers in 128 games of work. In fact, his 22.7 at-bats per every home run was better than 2016 (25 home runs) and not too far off from 2015 (20.4) AB/HR when he slugged 30 four-baggers. Abreu may be 32 years old, but the outcomes from last season seem more indicative of bad luck than an aging player experiencing a decline in his skill set. There was no huge loss in hard contact, or increase in strikeout percentage, or decrease in his launch angle to explain from last year. Believe it or not, bad luck and the surgery/hospitalization can surely take the brunt of the blame for ending Abreu’s impressive streak mentioned earlier.
YEAR | HR | LD% | GB/FB | HR/FB% | Soft% | Hard% | EXIT VELO | LAUNCH ANGLE |
2016 | 25 | 21.3% | 1.37 | 14.8% | 20.3% | 32.7% | 89.7 | 10.3 |
2017 | 33 | 18.2% | 1.24 | 17.9% | 15.8% | 40.5% | 90.5 | 11.3 |
2018 | 22 | 21.2% | 1.28 | 16.1% | 17.2% | 37.9% | 91.3 | 12.2 |
As you can see from above, there weren’t any vast discrepancies in Abreu’s batted profile last season compared to the previous two seasons. In fact, one of the main takeaways to take from the chart is that he sustained a solid hard contact rate and the increases in exit velocity and launch angle is good for future power production. His 34.6 fly ball percentage last season was the second-best mark of his career, and continuing to hit the ball hard and in the air should lead to a return to the 30 home run club for Abreu in 2019.
Along with the diminished power numbers in 2018, Abreu’s batting average plummeted to .265 last year, by far the lowest mark of his career. Prior to 2018, his .290 batting average in 2015 was the lowest of his career. Some bad luck led to a deflated BABIP, which in turn, drove that batting average down well below what we had been accustomed to seeing from the slugging first baseman.
YEAR | BABIP | AVG | xBA |
2015 | .333 | .290 | .274 |
2016 | .327 | .293 | .282 |
2017 | .330 | .304 | .288 |
2018 | .294 | .265 | .280 |
Based on how hard he was hitting the balls, and along with the launch angle and other factors, Abreu profiled as a.280 hitting in 2018, but due to that .294 BABIP, his average was down in the .260s. Say he meets his expected batting average (xBA), Abreu hits .280 last year and that mark is much closer to where he had been in years past.
The supporting cast around Abreu could be better than it has been in recent seasons, especially if Yoan Moncada continues to develop and can get on-base a bit more, not to mention that whenever Eloy Jimenez comes up, Abreu will have better protection in the heart of the order. Abreu has hit around 30 home runs with 100+ RBI with less talented pieces around him, and fantasy owners should bank on a return to normalcy for Abreu in 2019.
There is certainly a path to 30 home runs, 100+ RBI and a .285 batting average for Abreu this season.
Statistical Credits
fangraphs.com
brooksbaseball.net
baseballsavant.mlb.com
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