Late-age breakouts can make fantasy players cautious not to overreact to them. Joey Wendle did not win a starting job with the Rays last year but was valuable to owners who added him last season. Among rookies in 2018, Wendle finished first in batting average (.300), fifth in on-base percentage (.354), third in hits (146), third in doubles (33), first in triples (six) and tied for second in stolen bases (16).

Even though Wendle’s projected to hit third, he will be 29 in April, which could cap his fantasy ceiling. Wendle appeared in 139 games last year scoring 62 runs with seven home runs, 61 RBI and a .300/.354/.425 slash line to accompany the statistics highlighted above. With batting averages on the decline in fantasy, perhaps Wendle could be a sneaky target late in drafts.

When looking at his batted ball data, it really varied from month-to-month. In an effort to illustrate this, here are his splits by month along with them broken down by halves last year:

Wendle’s production jumped in the second half, not only in regards to his contact percentages, but he also reduced his swinging strike rate by over three points after the All-Star break. Over his last 43 games, Wendle produced 20 doubles dating back to August 10th. In September, Wendle racked up 14 doubles in 25 games with a season high pull percentage of 40 percent and a hard-hit rate over 42 percent. There’s no guarantee it will carry over, but his surge should be noted.

Honing in on his last 30 games, Wendle scored 20 runs with 16 RBI, 13 walks, 16 strikeouts, eight stolen bases and a .339/.402/.487 slash line. He did not hit a home run, but the plate discipline exhibited more line drives and fewer ground balls, which could signal a change in approach.

While researching his underlying statistics, Wendle’s xSTATS do not see him falling off a cliff. Wendle finished with 7.9 expected home runs and a .279/.333/.398 expected slash line. He only recorded 11 barrels according to Statcast data but did produce a hard-hit rate over 35 percent last season. Baking in some regression makes sense, but the projection systems do not seem bullish on Wendle repeating his expected slash line:

Given more at-bats, a chance to hit double digits in home runs and stolen bases could be within reach for Wendle. Only ATC gives him a chance to hit above .270, which could be a surprise, but it’s an unforgiving game. His counting statistics also seem a bit light. If Wendle hits third, or in the top third of the order, he should be able to beat the numbers above in runs and RBI.

Last year, the third hitters for Tampa Bay scored 84 runs with 83 RBI in 629 at-bats. These rates applied to his at-bats above put his runs and RBI in the 62-to-65 range. Not overwhelming, but will be dependent on how many at-bats he accrues this season. Also, Tampa Bay proved to be one of the most aggressive teams on the bases last year leading the league in stolen base attempts per game.

Joey Wendle may be a better real-life baseball player than fantasy, but if he can repeat his expected slash lines with double digits in home runs and the potential for 15 or more stolen bases, then he represents a bargain in fantasy. He also owns eligibility at second and third base in 20-game eligibility leagues. Wendle adds shortstop and outfield in Yahoo leagues which use 10 games to determine eligibility. Given his present price point and floor in batting average, Wendle will not garner fantasy buzz, but he’s a nice late round flier to round out a roster.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

xSTATS.org

Baseball-Reference.com

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

Depth Charts courtesy of RosterResource.com