Despite ranking eighth in batting average (.308), ninth in stolen bases (75) and tied for 21st in runs (278) over the last three seasons, fantasy owners continue to undervalue Jean Segura . Early NFBC drafts could portend the draft season with Segura as the 11th shortstop being taken. Should he be?
Last season, Segura accrued 586 at-bats with Seattle scoring 91 runs with 10 home runs, 63 RBI, 20 stolen bases and a .304/.341/.415 slash line. There have been whispers that Segura isn’t a great teammate based on a fight with Dee Gordon last year combined with the fact he will be with his third franchise in four years. However, for fantasy purposes, none of this matters.
In fact, noting he’s heading back to a plus hitting ball park in Philadelphia while potentially hitting second in the lineup could make him a solid fantasy contributor that seems to be flying beneath the radar. During the last three years, Segura’s racked up 1,747 at-bats, 273 runs, 41 home runs, 172 RBI, 75 stolen bases and a .308/.353/.449 slash line. He’s not shown any discernible home and road splits in this time frame, averages 91 runs, 14 home runs, 57 RBI and 25 steals with strong on-base abilities.
Phillies second hitters finished last season with 669 at-bats, 93 runs, 26 home runs, 81 RBI, six stolen bases and a paltry .215/.313/.393 slash. Rhys Hoskins appeared as the second most often accounting for the power numbers which Segura will not replicate, but even if Segura finishes with an on-base percentage near his 35 percent average the last three years, it’s an upgrade for a team needing traffic on the bases.
While Segura’s home run total of 20 looks to be the outlier in 2016, note it occurred in the pre-humidor days in Arizona. Trying to see if there’s room for growth in the category, Segura’s expected statistics from the last three years suggest it could be possible. Compared to his actual home run total of 41, his expected home run total would add up to 43 in this time frame. Here’s a look at his line drive and fly balls from these seasons in his new ballpark:
It’s interesting Segura would gain more power to center and the opposite field in Citizens Bank Park. Steamer’s already adjusted his home run projection for next year to 14, which aligns with his average the last three years. Steamer seems to be low on his average but xSTATS projects it to be .300 based on expected hits divided by his total at-bats (524 xHits, 1,747 at-bats).
Looking at his batted ball data, hoping for the 14 home runs seems like the best bet compared to a rebound to his Diamondback career season. Segura’s career fly ball, home runs per fly ball and hard-hit percentages are below:
Segura will need a bounce back in his hard-hit rate to coincide with the recent gains in fly balls. In a perfect storm, Segura could spike to 16-to-18 home runs in 2019, but this should be a bonus, not planned upon.
Most encouraging from Segura’s 2018, he recorded his lowest swinging strike percentage (5.6 percent) and his best contact rate (88.3 percent) of his career. Based on the data above, Steamer’s projection of 610 at-bats, 82 runs, 14 home runs, 62 RBI, 21 stolen bases and .284/.330/.414 seems a bit low in regard to runs and average. Even if Segura did not surpass those totals, he still could outperform his ADP as the 11th shortstop drafted.
Far too often fantasy players overlook stable skill sets hoping for the unicorn on draft day. Do not overlook Segura’s steady fantasy presence and he could reach 100 runs with 15 home runs and 25 stolen bases. Great teammate or not, Segura’s worth the reach for the season ahead.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com, MLB.com, xSTATS.org, BaseballSavant.com