It seems like a yearly exercise, but J.A. Happ gets overlooked almost every draft season. Last year, he finished fourth in the American League in wins (17), seventh in WHIP (1.13) and 13th in ERA (3.65). At the trade deadline, he joined the Yankees and re-signed with them in the offseason via free agency.
Happ logged 177.2 innings last year with 193 strikeouts against 51 walks en route to a career best 19.4 strikeouts minus walks percentage. His ground ball rate slipped by just under six percent along with his hard-hit percentage allowed rising by 4.2 percent. This will need to be monitored with his transition to Yankee Stadium for half of his starts. Happ’s been able to outperform his peripheral statistics, but hard-hit fly balls in home games will affect his ratios.
Before looking at his arsenal, Happ threw more fastballs last year while almost shelving his curve. He also used fewer sinkers which helped his swinging strike percentage. It will be intriguing to see how Happ will pitch in New York, but here are his arsenal results from last year courtesy of Statcast:
Happ should see some positive migration with both his sinker and change if they trend towards their expected averages. He also generated whiff percentages above 20 percent with three pitches underscoring his ability to produce strikeouts. Although Happ’s more of a compiler, he provides steady numbers in this regard.
In an effort to illustrate how Happ works above and at the bottom of the zone, here’s his pitch plot chart with his four primary pitches from 2018:
Within his zone profiles, Happ pounds the upper edges of the strike zone while burying his slider to right handed hitters and his change to left-handed batters:
Over the last three years, Happ’s won 47 games with 21 losses in 518 innings with 498 strikeouts, a 3.44 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. This sets a nice baseline for his projection sets due to his reliability. Using his expected statistics (xSTATS), Happ recorded a 3.69 bbFIP with an expected on-base average of .307 last year. This aligns well with his 3.98 xFIP which creates a sliding range for his potential ERA in the season ahead. However, given his new home, it could ebb towards the xFIP end rather than his kwFIP from 2018.
This also resonates in Happ’s projection sets:
Due to the lack of sexy upside, J.A. Happ ’s average draft position as the 35th starting pitcher and 51st pitcher at 136th overall in 12-team drafts the last month in NFBC data. But, sometimes knowing what to expect helps round out a staff. Just plan on a higher ERA and WHIP than last year, but if the Yankees play well, Happ could win 15 games as easily as the 12 projected above. Stable can be appealing too.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
BaseballSavant.com
xSTATS.org
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski
https://playnfbc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
Player News
Fernando Tatis Jr. (shoulder) returned to the Padres’ starting lineup for Friday’s series opener against the Rockies.
The 26-year-old superstar wound up missing just one game after tweaking his surgically-repaired right shoulder on Tuesday. With Jackson Merrill and Jake Cronenworth on the shelf, the Padres will need Tatis to carry even more of the load over the next couple of weeks. He’ll bat leadoff against right-hander German Marquez on Friday evening in San Diego.
Zach Neto (shoulder) is playing shortstop once again at Triple-A Salt Lake on Friday, marking the first time that he has done so in back-to-back games.
Angels’ manager Ron Washington is already on record saying that he wanted Neto to play nine innings at shortstop in back-to-back games before he rejoins the Angels. Neto played six innings on Thursday night and hasn’t played more than seven, so it’s going to take him at least a few more games before he’s able to check off that box. If all goes well, there’s a chance that he could be ready to return by the end of next week.
Astros’ general manager Dana Brown told reporters on Friday that they’re hopeful Spencer Arrighetti (thumb) will be able to return in six weeks.
Arrighetti suffered a broken right thumb when he was hit by a line drive while playing catch in the outfield during batting practice on Monday. If he is able to reach that optimistic timeframe, he could be back in the Astros’ rotation before the end of May. Fantasy managers in leagues that don’t feature an injured list may have some tough decisions to make on whether or not to cut bait or wait it out.
Padres’ manager Mike Shildt told reporters that he expects Fernando Tatis Jr. (shoulder) to return to the lineup on Friday night.
While the Padres have yet to release their lineup, it sounds like their superstar outfielder will be in there after sitting out Wednesday’s game after he tweaked his surgically-repaired right shoulder. Things could still change before gametime, but fantasy managers should expect to have Tatis at their disposal on Friday evening.
Dodgers activated 1B Freddie Freeman from the 10-day injured list.
As expected, Freeman will make his triumphant return to the Dodgers’ lineup on Friday night against the Cubs. The 35-year-old slugger told reporters that he’s feeling as good as he has felt all year and that he feels like he could steal a base. The Dodgers probably won’t be giving him that green light as he eases back into action, but it’s nice to hear that he’s feeling spry as he returns to action.
Brewers optioned RHP Elvis Peguero to Triple-A Nashville.
The Brewers needed to send someone out to make room on the active roster for Jose Quintana’s debut and unfortunately Peguero was the odd man out this time around. The 28-year-old hurler posted a 5.68 ERA, 1.74 WHIP and a 3/4 K/BB ratio over 6 1/3 innings in his five appearances with the Brewers.