2019 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Gleyber Torres

When finally promoted to the big league club, Torres flashed the skills that should reside in the middle of the New York infield for the foreseeable future. After hitting just 24 home runs in his minor league career, Torres popped 24 round-trippers in 123 games with the Yankees last season. Along with those marks, he posted an .840 OPS, drove in 77 runs and swiped six bags. He makes hard contact with frequency, and perhaps one of the biggest takeaways from his rookie season is that he made soft contact, per Fangraphs, just 14 percent of the time. His fly ball rate is solid, and he only hits a ground ball about one-third of the time, so that suffices. His HR/FB ratio will likely stay a tad bit higher, consider his home games are in one of the more hitter friendly parks in all of baseball, even though he only uses the opposite field about one-quarter of the time.

What Torres did at 21 years of age in the big leagues is impressive, and his potential is immense in that New York lineup, but his average draft position is a bit pricy for a player who has other players that put up similar stat lines to him later in the draft. Sure, some of those players don’t have the potential that Torres has, and in his 22-year-old season, which hopefully doesn’t see any injuries, Torres could hit near 30 home runs with 85-90 RBI in the middle third of the Yankees lineup.

However, Torres is far from perfect, and at the big league level, we saw a few more holes in that bat of his. Torres’ SwStr% of 14.0 is a bit high, and the combination of a 25.3 strikeout percentage and 70.9 contact percentage is far from ideal. When he returned from injury after appearing in just nine July contests, you can tell from the graphs below that Torres was free swinging more than usual, leading to a higher chase percentage and slightly increased swing and miss rate.

Based on his batted profile, Baseball Savant has indicated that he’s comparable to Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger , when factoring in items such as ground ball rate, spray charts, barrel percentage, and more. So, there’s reason to believe in a power increase in 2019 for Torres, correct? Sure, but don’t bet on a huge one. His home park is excellent for power production, but of his 24 home runs last season, they were split rather evenly (13 home, 11 away). For a power increase, Torres will need to hit for a better average on the road in 2019, coming off a season where he hit .301 at home and .238 on the road. Furthermore, eating into that ground ball rate will be imperative for power production. The hard contact is there, the average launch angle is fine, but a ground ball nearly one-third of the time might get in the way. If he didn’t get hurt, he may have popped 30 four-baggers last season. Given his numbers in the minor leagues, I assume that ground ball rate may jump a bit in 2019, but as long as it doesn’t increase substantially, chances are increased that Torres gets to that 30 homer threshold. In 2019, Torres home run ceiling is about 30.

When deciding to draft Torres in the first four or five rounds of your draft, the question comes down to whether you believe Torres will make improvements in 2019, as well as if you want to grab one of the few high upside guys at the second base position. The second base position lacks multiple top-end guys, but the “poor man’s version” of numerous players at this position will entice owners. Consider the following four players based on their 2019 projections from THE BAT, courtesy of Derek Carty.

Is there a clear-cut favorite amongst the four players above? For the most part, the players are rather comparable, and if you were to take the stolen base numbers out of the equation, it may be a tougher decision.

Now, let’s factor in some ADP for the fellows above, courtesy of NFBC.

Without further ado, here are the players mentioned above:

Player A: Gleyber Torres
Player B: Scooter Gennett
Player C: Brian Dozier
Player D: Jonathan Schoop

Interesting, eh? Torres far and away has the most potential amongst these players, but the projections don’t have him worthy of being drafted numerous rounds above someone like Brian Dozier . However, if Torres were to significantly outperform his xBA again in 2019, pop 30 home runs and drive in 90 runs, he’s certainly worth the price.

When things get down to brass tacks, it’s not a question of Torres’ talent or potential, because that is undeniable, it’s more so how big of a stride he can take in just his second big league season, and if the price is worth paying. Sure, Schoop or Dozier are far from sexy picks, but if projections hold true, the value is better.

Again, Torres is one of just a handful of second baseman that can hit 25-30 home runs with 85 RBI, and thanks to a favorable home park and lineup surrounding him, he’s set to take flight in 2019.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com