One year removed from a career high 59 home runs, Giancarlo Stanton arrived in New York with lofty expectations by his new team’s fan base and fantasy owners alike. However, Stanton slogged through a nagging hamstring injury and turned in a campaign more closely aligned with his career norms rather than his historic 2017 numbers. Owning Stanton in head-to-head formats proves frustrating, but with home runs ebbing back towards 2016 totals, his power proliferates Stanton’s fantasy appeal. But, there’s a price.
Although it’s encouraging to see Stanton able to play through an injury last season, he finished 2018 with 102 runs, 38 home runs, 100 RBI, five stolen bases and a .266/.343/.509 in 617 at-bats. Unfortunately, his discipline metrics regressed. Stanton’s walk rate decreased while his strikeout percentage rose by over six percent along with his chase rate trending back towards his career rate. Thankfully the migration of these numbers to the mean did not cause his average to collapse, but it’s worth noting.
Stanton did increase his line drive percentage and his hard-hit percentage actually grew despite the home run total going down. Over the last three years, Stanton’s been one of baseball’s most consistent sources of power with only Khris Davis hitting more in this time frame. Stanton also ranks fourth in isolated power (.284), ninth in hard hit rate (41.1 percent) and first in HR/FB percentage (28 percent). Here’s a look at his power indicators courtesy of Fangraphs:
Note the dip from last season when his hamstring issues arose in August. Without a strong foundation in the legs, a power hitter can struggle. Playing through the injury can be encouraging, but it also caused a decline in his average during the second half. But, owners of Stanton should understand the potential risks, they’re here for the power.
Shifting to Statcast data, Stanton’s a pure stud in many categories. Here’s his last three seasons power numbers courtesy of the information on Baseball Savant:
- 2018 - 416 batted ball events, 99.7 MPH FB/LD exit velocity, 8.9 percent of barrels per plate appearance
- 2017 - 437 batted ball events, 99.8 MPH FB/LD exit velocity, 11 percent of barrels per plate appearance
- 2016 - 275 batted ball events, 97 MPH FB/LD exit velocity, 9.4 percent of barrels per plate appearance
In terms of total barrels, Stanton finished fourth in baseball last year with 63 and his average exit velocity of 93.7 MPH also ranked fourth overall. For those searching for power, there’s some encouraging signs within his batted ball data, especially against fastballs last season:
Transitioning to his expected statistics (xSTATS), Stanton’s 2018 aligned well. According to xSTATS, Stanton finished with a .269/.346/.513 expected slash and 37.4 expected home runs. Over the last three years, his expected average .271 sits above his actual number but the expected home runs lag by about five. Factoring in his home in the Bronx, and being more comfortable in his new surroundings, his power numbers should rebound.
Steamer projects Stanton for 133 games, 500 at-bats, 91 runs, 42 home runs, 103 RBI, three stolen bases and a .267/.353/.567 slash line. His early average draft position suggests Stanton will be taken near 22nd overall with a range of 16 as his high pick and 35 as the nadir. At a time when owners will be looking to insulate teams with power, Stanton will be alluring. Only Mike Trout and Joey Gallo find themselves projected with at least 40 home runs by Steamer.
Use Stanton’s last three year slash as his baseline with 40-plus home runs this year with at least 500 at-bats. His counting statistics will benefit as well playing with the Yankees. This means triple digits in runs and RBI should be in the offing as well. Still residing within his power peak means Stanton’s a stable commodity. Just do not expect a repeat of 2017, this could prove to be his outlier in a perfect storm of a season. But at a time when bankable power seems in decline, Stanton’s still a unicorn for power without killing a fantasy team’s batting average.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, xSTATS.org, SteamerProjections.com
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