All Freddie Freeman does is produce for his fantasy owners. He has played in 158 or more games in two of the past three years, including playing in all 162 games for the second time in his career last season for the Atlanta Braves. At just 29 years old, Freeman is on the right side of 30 entering his 10th season with the Braves. Aside from a few unfortunate injuries in prior seasons, Freeman has been a beacon of consistency at not only the first base position, but fantasy baseball as a whole.

Freeman has at least 23 home runs and a .300+ batting average in each of the past three seasons, and four times in the past six seasons. While he hasn’t exceeded 100 RBI since 2013, he’s topped 90 RBI in two of the past three seasons, and another full season in the Atlanta offense should give Freeman every opportunity to reach the 100 RBI plateau. Finding high average guys at the first base position is far from a walk in the park.

In 2016, three first baseman hit over .300 (Joey Votto , Miguel Cabrera , Freeman)

In 2017, seven first baseman hit over .300 (Votto, Buster Posey , Eric Hosmer , Freeman, Joe Mauer , José Abreu , Ryan Zimmerman ).

In 2018, two first baseman hit over .300 (Jose Martinez , Freeman).

Aside from 2017, finding a good batting average at this position has been tough, but the fact remains that over the past three seasons, only two first baseman (Freeman, Votto) have had multiple seasons with a .300+ batting average. That is rather rare consistency to say the least. Freeman’s BABIP has fluctuated over the past four years, being as low as .321 (2015) and as high as .370 (2016). Over the past three seasons, he’s hit over .300 with a BABIP at .370 and .335. In a home park that plays neutral at the worst, Freeman should hit over .300 for the fourth straight season.

Freeman will hit above .300 yet again this season, and as long as he can keep the strikeout rate no higher than about 19 percent for the third straight season, consider it done for the All-Star first baseman.

For a corner infielder, Freeman is far from a nonfactor in the stolen base department. He’s stolen at least eight bags in each of the past two seasons, including a career-high 10 bags last season. Furthermore, he’s logged 13 attempts in each of the past two seasons. The veteran first baseman doesn’t run a lot, but he was very effective last season when he was given the green light.

Yes, the home runs have dropped each of the past two seasons, down to just 23 last season, which is far from ideal from a corner infield position where the stereotype is big time power numbers, or at least above average. For the second straight season, his ground ball rate increased, and he traded fly balls (career-low 31.3 percent) for line drives (career-high 32.3 percent). The dip in home runs led to a career high in doubles, and with a return to marks from the prior seasons, or even his career averages, those doubles from last season will translate to home runs this season. Buy into a home run total in the upper 20s this Freeman, with upside to reach the low 30s.

Various projects all believe in a bounce back in the power department for Freeman, with THE BAT and Steamer projecting 28 and 27 round trippers respectively. Freeman will yet again be a reliable source of batting average and on-base percentage in 2019, and potent supporting cast will yet again help his counting stats. Still firmly in the prime of his playing career, Freeman’s ceiling in 2019 is something along the lines of a  .300+ batting average with 30 home runs, 100 runs scored, 100 RBI and 10 stolen bases. From a thin position, that’s contributions all across the board. Yes, those are lofty projections for the Atlanta first baseman, but he wasn’t too far off from those numbers last season.

Freeman’s consistency and run-producing role in a potent offense makes him a top play at a position that lacks high-end fantasy talent.

Statistical Credits
Fangraphs.com
BrooksBaseball.net
thebaseballcube.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com