Every year a rookie catches the fancy of fantasy owners. This year at catcher, Francisco Mejia will be popular in drafts and auctions. Over the last month, he’s the 15th catcher taken in 12-team leagues in NFBC drafts with an average draft position of 257.9 along with a range of 164-to-357 to underscore the volatility of his market. Mejia’s not assured of logging the majority of at-bats at catcher for San Diego, but he’s being treated as such.

Many will be pining for less Austin Hedges and more Mejia, but with a potentially young Padres pitching staff, Hedges’ defense could keep him in the lineup. However, upside drives the bus in fantasy. Mejia played 21 games with San Diego last year accruing 56 at-bats with six runs, three home runs and eight RBI with a .179/.258/.375 slash line. Since his sample’s so limited, it’s difficult to discern his batted ball data.

At Triple-A, Mejia appeared in 110 games, with two different franchises after his trade, with 54 runs, 14 home runs, 68 RBI and a .293/.338/.471 line. He walked 25 times with 83 strikeouts in 468 plate appearances equating to a 5.3 walk percentage and 17.1-percent strikeout rate. Mejia’s slash aligns with his career minor league rates and he owns a 34.7 on-base percentage over this time.

Trying to identify trends, Mejia increased his fly ball percentages last year and seems to be focusing on more power within his profile. Thanks to MLBfarm.com, here’s his spray chart from last year, keep in mind, he’s a switch hitter:

This chart only highlights his line drive and fly ball data from last year, but he owns enough pop to be intriguing this season. For another view, here’s Mejia’s heat map, key on his pull side tendencies:

Since there’s so much gray area in regards to how much Mejia will play, his hot start this spring will not defray the owners chasing his upside. Through his first 28 plate appearances, Mejia’s racked up three doubles, three home runs, nine RBI and a robust .385/.429/.846 slash line. But, he’s also walked twice with nine strikeouts. According to Baseball Reference’s quality of opponent rating, the 7.4 rating suggests he’s facing Double-A, Triple-A and some major league pitchers.

There’s going to be swing and miss to his game, but the power could arrive sooner rather than later. His overall value in 2019 will boil down to how many at-bats can Mejia accrue. Here’s a look at three levels of opinions from three different sources in his projection sets:

For perspective, ZiPS projects based solely on playing time without considering all the players on the roster. So, this represents the high tide of totals but with a grain of salt. THE BAT likes Mejia and could be closer to the actual number of at-bats within reason for Mejia this year. It’s also the most aggressive in terms of his slash lines. All of the above could be within the realm of possibilities.

So, when taking Francisco Mejia before knowing his role for the season comes with some risk. He could be closer to 300 at-bats than 400, especially if San Diego plays above expectations. If the Padres decide to enact the youth movement, Mejia’s value increases appreciably. Pay for the ATC projection and hope Mejia logs more time in the second half. It may take some patience, but Mejia’s a growth stock, treat him accordingly.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

MiLB.com

MLBfarm.com

Baseball-Reference.com

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski

https://playnfbc.shgn.com/adp/baseball